Occupy Banksters & Crony Capitalism & GREED

"How Ivy League Admissions Broke America:" David Brooks Explains | Amanpour and Company | 11/19/24 | 18:14

Columbia Professor Jeffrey Sachs Reveals Shocking TRUTH About Ukraine | Cyrus Janssen | 11/17/24 | 18:45

Trump's messy coalition
Axios | Zachary Basu | 11/20/24

President-elect Trump's Cabinet increasingly resembles a European-style coalition government, staffed with a dizzying array of ideological rivals united - for now - by a grand MAGA vision.

Why it matters: The incoming administration has a little something for everyone: isolationists and hawks, populists and bankers - even a couple of lifelong Democrats who ran for president against Trump.

Some supporters have praised Trump for the eclectic mix of nominees, saying it reflects the broad range of Americans who voted decisively for a new Washington.

But if Trump's first term is any indication, his Cabinet of contradictions also could invite volatility and infighting that eventually spills into public view. ... Read more

New twist in Trump's Treasury race
Axios | Mike Allen | 11/20/24

President-elect Trump is looking more seriously at Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) for Treasury secretary - giving Trump three serious options for one of the few roles where he's taking his time, transition sources tell me.

Hagerty, a former private-equity investor who was Trump's ambassador to Japan, is one of three apparent finalists, along with former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and Apollo CEO Marc Rowan.

Hagerty, 65, has credibility with Wall Street leaders, the markets, foreign leaders and Congress. And he owes his political career to Trump.

"Respected, loyal and great on TV - the total Trump package," a top Republican source said. ... Read more

Trump's victory sparks consumer confidence surge
Axios | Emily Peck | 11/18/24

After years of wondering why there was a disconnect between how Americans feel about the economy (bad) and the actual state of the economy (pretty good), we may have the answer - it was politics all along.

Why it matters: If politics is the main driver of consumer sentiment, then it's no longer nearly as useful as an economic indicator.

The big picture: A real-time measure of consumer sentiment abruptly turned positive last week for the first time since June 2021, as Republican optimism surged on Donald Trump's victory. (See the chart below.)

Biden on Amazon visit says "nobody can reverse" clean energy progress
Axios | Rebecca Falconer | 11/18/24

President Biden, as he became the first sitting president to visit the Amazon rainforest on Sunday, touted leaving President-elect Trump the "most significant climate change law."

Why it matters: Biden appeared to acknowledge Trump's pledge to roll back some of his climate initiatives, saying: "I will leave my successor and my country with a strong foundation to build on if they choose to do so. It's true, some may seek to deny or delay the clean energy revolution that's underway in America, but nobody, nobody can reverse it."

Mike Johnson wants Ethics panel to keep potentially damaging Gaetz report secret
Axios | Juliegrace Brufke,Andrew Solender | 11/15/24

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said he'll ask the House Ethics Committee not to release a potentially damaging report on the conduct of former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), President-elect Trump's attorney general nominee.

Why it matters: Johnson said making the report public would set a "terrible precedent," demonstrating how far he's willing to go to help Trump's nominees.

Gaetz resigned from the House Wednesday - a move that would typically disband the Ethics Committee's investigation - but senators of both parties have said they want to see the panel's findings as they prepare to consider whether to confirm Gaetz.

"I'm going to strongly request that the Ethics Committee not issue the report because that is not the way we do things in the House, and I think that would be a terrible precedent to set," Johnson said, as first reported by Politico. ... Read more

'We all have our eyes wide open': Trump critics brace for dark time of retribution
The Guardian | Andrew Gumbel | 11/15/14

Members of Congress and other US public officials targeted for "retribution" by Donald Trump say they are taking extraordinary security precautions for themselves and their families and are now bracing for scenarios as extreme as the possibility of being rounded up and arrested, after Trump returns to the White House.

Two Democratic House members who have been vocal in their criticisms of Trump and his policy agenda told the Guardian they and their colleagues are preparing for "some pretty surreal and dystopic scenarios". They range from bogus investigations or tax audits of present and former members of the federal government to out-and-out violence inspired by Trump's rhetoric of revenge. ... Read more

The Tipping Points of Climate Change - and Where We Stand | Johan Rockström | TED | 08/14/24 | 18:35

Earth currently experiencing a sixth mass extinction, according to scientists | 60 Minutes | 01/01/23| 13:16

See what three degrees of global warming looks like | The Economist | 2022 | 16:23

Trump's Reelection: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver | 12/14/24 | 36:13

Russian defectors, Putin critics suffer mysterious, violent deaths | 60 Minutes | 11/11/24| 22:00

Trump announces Musk will lead new Department of Government Efficiency
Axios | Dave Lawler | 11/14/24

President-elect Trump announced on Tuesday that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead a new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to cut government spending and streamline bureaucracy.

Why it matters: The Musk-Trump political alliance is moving from the campaign into the White House. However, it's unclear what exactly Musk's role will entail - or whether he and Ramaswamy will actually be able to make the kinds of sweeping changes they have proposed.

Trump described the new "department" as "potentially, 'The Manhattan Project' of our time," but he also said it would be advising from "outside of government."

That suggests Musk and Ramaswamy, a wealthy investor and biotech entrepreneur, won't have any power to implement changes, only to advise the White House and executive branch departments on cuts. ... Read more

Donald Trump Has 'Obligations' to Those Who Brought Him to Power-Putin Ally
Newsweek | Jordan King | 11/12/24

AVladimir Putin aide has warned Donald Trump that he is "obliged" to fulfill promises he made during his presidential campaign to bring peace to Ukraine.

The President-elect said repeatedly during his campaign to secure his return to the White House that he would put a stop to the more than two and a half years of war in Ukraine "within 24 hours."

And Nikolai Patrushev, part of the Russian president's inner circle and former Secretary of the Security Council, told the Russian newspaper Kommersant that Trump was duty-bound to act on his words.

Patrushev said: "To achieve success in the elections, Donald Trump relied on certain forces to which he has corresponding obligations. And as a responsible person, he will be obliged to fulfill them. ... Read more

What Trump's mass deportation plan might look like if he wins the election | 60 Minutes | 10/28/24 | 13:05

Trump picks Fox News host Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary
Axios | Sareen Habeshian | 11/13/24

President-elect Trump nominated Pete Hegseth to serve as Secretary of Defense on Tuesday.

Why it matters: A surprise choice, the TV personality and military vet is a proponent of a non-interventionist "America First" foreign policy, in contrast with Trump's picks for other top national security roles.

Driving the news: Trump in an emailed statement called the Fox News host "a Warrior for the Troops, and for the Country."

The president-elect added, "With Pete at the helm, America's enemies are on notice - Our Military will be Great Again, and America will Never Back Down." ... Read more

Banking System Gives Trump the Middle Finger As His Reckless Plans Emerge | Rebel HQ/TYT | 11/10/14 | 10:24

Behind the Curtain: The Trump, Musk fusion
Axios | Mike Allen, Jim VandeHei | 11/12/24

President-elect Trump and Elon Musk, two billionaires with strikingly similar DNAs, are fusing into a new, powerful governing-media paradigm.

Why it matters: This Trump-Musk fusion seems to grow stronger by the day. The two are working together to shape the new White House, the new Senate and the new Cabinet, plus future foreign relations and governing blueprints.

The pair plots and plans at Trump's Mar-a-Lago, where Musk is often camped out. He's one of only a couple of confidants who attends Cabinet-selection sessions in Trump's makeshift Situation Room. The two amplify their thinking and desires on Musk's X. ...

Robot that watched surgery videos performs with skill of human doctor, researchers report
Science Daily | Johns Hopkins University | 11/11/24

A robot, trained for the first time by watching videos of seasoned surgeons, executed the same surgical procedures as skillfully as the human doctors.

The successful use of imitation learning to train surgical robots eliminates the need to program robots with each individual move required during a medical procedure and brings the field of robotic surgery closer to true autonomy, where robots could perform complex surgeries without human help.

"It's really magical to have this model and all we do is feed it camera input and it can predict the robotic movements needed for surgery," said senior author Axel Krieger. "We believe this marks a significant step forward toward a new frontier in medical robotics." ... Read more

Report: Extreme weather cost world $2 trillion in 10 years, U.S. worst hit
Axios | Rebecca Falconer | 11/11/24

Climate-related extreme weather events cost the global economy more than $2 trillion over the past decade and the U.S. was the worst-affected nation, per a report published as leaders gather for the COP29 summit in Azerbaijan Monday.

Why it matters: The damage estimates in the Oxera report for the International Chamber of Commerce for 2014-2023 roughly equate to those of the 2008 global financial crisis and ICC secretary-general John Denton said "the economic impact of climate change" needs a "response of similar speed and decisiveness," per CNN.

What they did: The report's researchers examined nearly 4,000 events that occurred over the 10-year period which impacted 1.6 billion people.

What they found: In the last two full years of the report alone, global economic damages reached $451 billion. That's a 19% rise compared to the previous eight years of the decade, according to the researchers.

The U.S. had the greatest economic losses over the period from 2014-2023 ($934.7 billion), followed by China at $267.9 billion and India ($112 billion). ... Read more

Trump's incoming "Border Czar": Deportation plan is "worst first"
Axios | Mike Allen | 11/11/24

Tom Homan, named Sunday to be President-elect Trump's "Border Czar," said on Fox News this weekend that the new administration's planned deportation operation will target "the worst first" - prioritizing what he called criminal threats and national-security threats.

Homan will be the director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). He was acting director in the Trump administration.

Why it matters: ICE agents will take a pivotal operational role in delivering on Trump's promise to "seal the border" and conduct the "largest deportation operation in American history." ... Read more

Trump's Businesses: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver | | 11/07/24 | 22:22

Behind the Curtain: America rejected soft liberalism
Axios | Jim VandeHei,Mike Allen | 11/11/24

The deeper they dig into federal and state election results, some Democrats are coming to a harsh, humbling conclusion: America rejected soft liberalism.

Why it matters: You see it in Hispanic men turning against Democrats... L.A. and San Francisco dumping Democrats seen as soft on crime and homelessness... white men taking to podcasts to lament word-policing and strict DEI policies... California voting to undo social justice reforms... a growing number of Democrats scolding their party for condescending political correctness.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn). tweeted Sunday that the left is "out of touch with the crisis of meaning/purpose fueling MAGA. We refuse to pick big fights. Our tent is too small." ... Read more

The REAL Reason MEN VOTED for TRUMP... | Scott Galloway | The Diary Of A CEO Clips | 11/06/24 | 8:46

What Trump's MAGA allies have planned for immigration in Project 2025
magazine | author | date

President-elect Trump has vowed to crack down on immigration and start mass deportations on day one of his presidency, and Project 2025 offers a wider look into what could come next.

The big picture: The 900-page wishlist is a roadmap for the next Republican administration to zero in on initiatives the GOP has long targeted - including a to-do list on immigration.

Trump repeatedly claimed during his campaign that he knew nothing about the right-wing policy map, despite the fact that the Heritage Foundation-backed plan was written by his close allies and supported by his top advisers.

The other side: "The American public, even amidst the election results, opposes the Trump agenda of mass deportation, separation of families, and his promises to 'un-document' and deport some with current legal status," Vanessa Cardenas, executive director of America's Voice, told Axios. ... Read more

Zelensky confirms deadly clashes between North Korean and Ukrainian forces
Axios | Ivana Saric | 11/08/24

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed Thursday that North Korean troops have engaged in combat with Ukrainian forces on the battlefield.

Why it matters: The clashes represent a stark escalation in the war as President-elect Trump, who has repeatedly criticized U.S. aid to Ukraine and suggested the country instead make a deal with Russia, prepares to reshape U.S. policy in the region.

The big picture: Zelensky said at a European Political Community Summit press conference Thursday that 11,000 North Korean troops are present in Russia's Kursk region, near the Ukrainian border. ... Read more

House election results: Where the fight for control stands
Axios | Andrew Solender | 11/08/24

They're still counting votes in 25 uncalled House races, but even Democrats admit that Republicans are on track to keep their majority in 2025.

Why it matters: House Democrats are the last shot to prevent a GOP trifecta in D.C. next year. Republicans have retaken the Senate majority, and President-elect Trump will be inaugurated on Jan. 20. ... Read more

Global temperatures likely to exceed key limit for first time
Axios | Andrew Freedman | 11/07/24

With October's initial temperature data in, 2024 will rank as the first calendar year in modern record-keeping in which global average surface temperatures exceed the Paris Agreement's aspirational 1.5°C guardrail.

Why it matters: Holding long-term warming to the 1.5-degree target compared to the preindustrial era is crucial for lowering the risk of triggering climate change tipping points, beyond which potentially catastrophic impacts have a higher likelihood of occurring, studies show.

Holding warming to that target is viewed as necessary for small island states and other extremely vulnerable nations to avoid being wiped out by sea level rise, drought and other threats. ... Read more

Behind the Curtain: The most powerful Republican president of the modern era
Axios | Jim VandeHei,Mike Allen | 11/07/24

Donald J. Trump has vanquished the Bushes, the Clintons, the Bidens, the Obamas - and the entire establishment of both parties.

Why it matters: Trump is stronger than ever, backed by a party wholly remade in his image and opposed by demoralized and defeated Democrats.

Make no mistake: Trump will come to power better organized, better staffed, and exponentially better positioned to dominate his party and the nation than he was last time.

Trump promises to stretch the immense powers of the presidency, with historically wide latitude from a pliant, conservative Supreme Court.

A new conservative media ecosystem - centered on Elon Musk's X - will amplify Trump's power and reshape America's information wars. ... Read more

U.S. ramps up pressure on Israel to address Gaza crisis ahead of deadline
Axios | Barak Ravid | 11/01/24

The Biden administration is ratcheting up pressure on the Israeli government to meet a set of demands from the U.S. to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Why it matters: If Israel fails to fully implement the U.S. demands by Nov. 13, the U.S. could suspend its military assistance to Israel - a step the Biden administration has avoided so far but is gaining more support inside the State Department, according to a U.S. official.

Determining if Israel has met its commitments to the U.S. and whether it has violated U.S. law during the war in Gaza could be the first major decision the Biden administration has to to make during the transition period after the presidential election.

Catch up quick: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin sent a letter on Oct. 13 to their Israeli counterparts with an ultimatum: Israel must take steps within 30 days to improve the dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza or risk the supply of U.S. weapons to Israel being affected. ... Read more

Iran preparing major retaliatory strike from Iraq within days, Israeli intel suggests
Axios | Barak Ravid | 11/01/24

Israeli intelligence suggests Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the U.S. presidential election, two Israeli sources tell Axios.

Why it matters: Israel and Iran have been engaged in an escalating tit-for-tat for weeks. Carrying the attack out through pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and not directly from Iranian territory could be an attempt by Iran to avoid another Israeli attack against strategic targets in Iran.

Driving the news: The sources said Israeli intelligence suggests the attack is expected to be carried out from Iraq using a large number of drones and ballistic missiles. ... Read more

Inequality Causing Social Fabric to Unravel, Rebellion in Military Possible - Wilkerson and Jay | theAnalysis-news | 10/31/24 | 39:05

How the Israeli Attack on Iran Could Seed a New World War
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The Intercept | Frank Giustra | 10/26/24

If you ask the average citizen of any country whether their leaders should start wars, almost all would give a resounding "No." The public, overall, opposes war, but tolerates leaders who prioritize power, legacy, and special interests over the wishes of their own people.

This is how we find ourselves recklessly stumbling toward a global conflict that could erupt out of the regional crises currently unfolding.

With its early Saturday morning attack, Israel is on the verge of dragging the U.S. into a regional war with Iran.

Let's start with the Middle East. With its early Saturday morning attack, Israel is on the verge of dragging the U.S. into a regional war with Iran. The plans were drawn up weeks ago and, despite U.S. warnings, Israel went ahead with the bombing.

Though, for the moment, Iran seems to be exercising restraint, U.S. leadership seems to not be up for the challenge of averting this conflagration. The Biden administration has proven ineffective. Not only has it failed to secure a ceasefire in Gaza, the administration is also emboldening Israel by providing military assistance against retaliatory attacks from Iran. ... Read more

Global summit blends AI and biotech
Axios | Alison Snyder | 10/31/24

The Biden administration this week is hosting a first-of-its-kind international summit about the use of artificial intelligence in the life sciences as governments and private industry increasingly push the boundaries of biotechnology.

Why it matters: The convergence of the life sciences and advanced AI could reveal the underpinnings of diseases, help identify new cures or produce more resistant crops. But there are barriers and bottlenecks - and potential risks - to combining the technologies.

The catch: Training today's advanced AI models requires massive amounts of high-quality, standardized scientific data. But there aren't many accessible databases with that information.

Officials hope the AI-Bioscience Collaborative (AIBC) Summit being held Thursday and Friday in Washington, D.C., can begin unlocking troves of data that can be used in the life sciences. The gathering has not been publicly announced. ... ... ... Read more

Trump's vulgar rally becomes a drag on his campaign
Axios | Erin Doherty | 10/29/24

Donald Trump's much-hyped rally in New York has become an own goal that's weighing on his campaign as it tries to sprint to next week's election.

Driving the news: Republicans on Monday tried to stop the fallout from the racist, sexist and vulgar rhetoric by several rally speakers, including a comedian who called Puerto Rico a "floating island of garbage."

Democrats, Latino groups and others seized on the remarks - and the fact that Trump's campaign approved the speakers - as the latest sign that Trump's divisive rhetoric should disqualify him from a second term. ... Read more

MAGA world's hyper-confidence
Axios | Zachary Basu | 10/29/24

Donald Trump's surrogates, allies and foot soldiers appear supremely confident he'll be re-elected president next week, projecting an air of inevitability inconsistent with what polls portray as a coin-flip election.

A longtime member of Trump's inner circle told Axios: "We've never had data that looks this good."

Why it matters: Trump could win, potentially in a landslide. So could Vice President Harris. And yet the MAGA universe largely refuses to entertain the latter outcome - priming Trump's base for mass distrust, disbelief and denial of a second straight election loss. ... ... ... Read more

How a Russian dark fleet is used to evade international sanctions | 60 Minutes | 10/28/24 | 13:14

Trump identifies a scapegoat in case he loses
Axios | Sophia Cai | 10/29/24

If he winds up losing the election, Donald Trump already has lined up a scapegoat.

Trump is making clear that he'll blame Michael Whatley, the Republican National Committee chair who Trump tasked with building the party's massive "election integrity" team.

Why it matters: It's the latest sign of how Trump's false claims of election fraud in 2020 are at the core of the GOP's identity - and the "if I don't win, they cheated" mantra Trump has continued into the 2024 campaign.

1. Under Whatley - and at Trump's insistence - Republicans say they've amassed 200,000 poll watchers and poll workers across the country.
2. It's an unprecedented program that's partly aimed at collecting evidence of voter fraud at a time when Republicans have filed scores of lawsuits targeting voting eligibility rules, ballot-processing procedures and other issues.
3. Within the GOP, the program is actually a bigger priority than on-the-ground efforts to reach voters.

MAGA speakers unleash ugly rhetoric at Trump's MSG rally
Axios | Alex Thompson | 10/28/24

NEW YORK - Donald Trump's rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday opened with speakers who made racist, sexist and crass remarks about Vice President Kamala Harris and Puerto Ricans.

It concluded with speeches from Trump, his wife, Melania, and billionaire Elon Musk arguing that Trump's the hopeful, optimistic choice.

Why it matters: Crude comments at Trump rallies aren't new. But many speakers at the rally unleashed rhetoric unprecedented in modern American history so close to an election. ...

Trump holds campaign rally at Madison Square Garden in New York | PBS | 10/27/24 | 6:01:29

Former DOJ Official Warns of Potential "Election Crisis" | Amanpour and Company | Amanpour and Company | 10/23/24 | 18:38

How long it took each state to be called in 2020
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magazine | author | date

If 2020 is our guide, it's likely that the 2024 presidential election won't be decided on Election Day.

Why it matters: Any period of uncertainty could see the country thrust into a time of legal drama, paralyzed governance and overall distrust, as Axios' Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen reported.

Because of post-2020 legal changes nationwide - including in all seven swing states — many results could be slower than in 2020, when President Biden declared victory over former President Trump after the Associated Press called Pennsylvania on the Saturday after Election Day. ... Read more

Why Economists Hate Trump's Tariff Plan | WSJ | 10/18/24 | 8:17

America's Last Election Part 1: The Big Lie | If You're Listening | ABC News In-depth | 10/20/24 | 21:00

Trump shrugs off lifetime of scandals
Axios | Zachary Basu | 10/24/24

Driving the news: Days before the election, Trump's former chief of staff, retired four-star Gen. John Kelly, went on the record to warn that the former president is a "fascist" who would rule like a dictator.

"He commented more than once that, 'You know, Hitler did some good things, too,' " Kelly alleged to The New York Times, choosing to speak out after Trump floated using the U.S. military against political enemies.

Kelly, who left the White House in December 2018, also told The Atlantic that Trump wanted the kind of military generals Hitler had - generals who he said were "totally loyal to him." ... Read more

Steve Rattner: Trump's mass deportation and trade war plans will tank the economy | MSNBC | 10/24/24 | 13:41

Donald Trump groped me in what felt like a 'twisted game' with Jeffrey Epstein, former model alleges
The Guardian | Stephanie Kirchgaessner | 10/24/24

A former model who says she met Donald Trump through the late sexual abuser Jeffrey Epstein has accused the former president of groping and sexually touching her in an incident in Trump Tower in 1993, in what she believed was a "twisted game" between the two men.

Stacey Williams, who worked as a professional model in the 1990s, said she first met Trump in 1992 at a Christmas party after being introduced to him by Epstein, who she believed was a good friend of the then New York real estate developer. Williams said Epstein was interested in her and the two casually dated for a period of a few months.

"It became very clear then that he and Donald were really, really good friends and spent a lot of time together," Williams said. ... Read more

Trump's closing strategy: Make a splash and attack
Axios | Sophia Cai | 10/23/24

In the closing days of what he says is his last campaign, Donald Trump has launched a strategy combining splashy, attention-getting stunts with dark, apocalyptic messaging.

Why it matters: It's a scaled-up version of a familiar Trump routine - stay in the news, be provocative, deflect.

This strategy led Trump to that fry-cook photo op at a closed McDonald's, and to have a rally with Elon Musk. It's why he's planning a Sunday rally at New York's Madison Square Garden - a storied venue in a state he's highly unlikely to win, but that promises lots of media coverage.

It's also why Trump's messaging - wrapped in personal grievances throughout the campaign — seems to have escalated to a daily hunt for shock value. ... Read more

John Kelly tells NYT Trump said: "Hitler did some good things"
Axios | Sareen Habeshian | 10/23/24

Former President Trump has on multiple occasions praised Adolf Hitler, alleged John Kelly, his longest-serving White House chief of staff, to the New York Times.

The big picture: In a series of audio interviews with the NYT, Kelly raised concerns that Trump would rule like a dictator if elected next month, said he believes the GOP presidential nominee meets the definition of a fascist and claimed that he does not have an understanding of history or the Constitution.

"Certainly the former president is in the far-right area, he's certainly an authoritarian, admires people who are dictators - he has said that. So he certainly falls into the general definition of fascist, for sure," Kelly told the NYT. ... Read more

Americans split on idea of putting immigrants in militarized "camps"
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Axios | Russell Contreras | 10/22/24

A policy proposed by former President Trump to round up and deport undocumented immigrants - even if it requires using military-guarded encampments - has Americans divided, per a new survey.

Why it matters: The survey results come as Trump is promising to carry out mass deportations using a 226-year-old law that allows the federal government to detain "enemy aliens" in times of war.

By the numbers: 50% of Americans surveyed oppose setting up encampments for undocumented immigrants, while 47% favor the idea, according to the annual survey from the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), in partnership with the Brookings Institution. ... Read more

Meta's new facial recognition helps recover accounts, spot fake ads
Axios | Sam Sabin | 10/22/24

Meta is gradually releasing facial recognition technology across Facebook and Instagram to help users locked out of their accounts and to spot scam ads that improperly use a celebrity's image.

Why it matters: This is the first major expansion of Meta's facial recognition system since its 2021 rollback.

The company has also been running a test of the technology to spot so-called "celebrity bait ads," which often rely on AI-generated images of famous people to entice users into buying into whatever scam they're promoting. ... Read more

What La Nina Will do to Earth in 2025
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YouTube.com | Alex McColgan | 09/17/24

Join with me today as we dive into the fascinating climate cycle that became the stuff of legend centuries before we had the science to explain it.

I'm Alex McColgan, the founder of the Astrum brand, and your host on this podcast. Come and listen as I tell you about incredible missions, fascinating discoveries, and everything I've come to love about space.... Read more

Israel gave the White House its demands for ending the war in Lebanon
Axios | Barak Ravid | 10/21/24

Israel gave the U.S. a document last week with its conditions for a diplomatic solution to end the war in Lebanon and allow displaced civilians from both sides of the border to return to their homes, two U.S. officials and two Israeli officials told Axios.

Why it matters: The Israeli Prime Minister's Office gave the paper to the White House ahead of President Biden's envoy Amos Hochstein's visit to Beirut on Monday to discuss a diplomatic solution to the conflict, Israeli officials said.

US intelligence about Israel's plans to attack Iran leaked, sources say | CNN | 10/20/24 | 8:19

One-third of Americans agree with Trump's racist remark on immigrants
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Axios | Russell Contreras | 10/18/24

One in three Americans say that immigrants entering the country illegally today are "poisoning the blood of our country" - language echoing the rhetoric of white supremacists and Adolf Hitler, a new survey finds.

Why it matters: The results suggest that in a nation of immigrants, many Americans have bought into the historically racist rhetoric that Donald Trump has used to stoke anti-immigrant sentiment while promising mass deportations if he's re-elected president.

The big picture: The annual survey from the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), in partnership with the Brookings Institution, measured the nation's deep political divisions in part by checking their feelings toward the phrase "poisoning the blood of our country." ... Read more

Jan. 6 case appendix to be released Friday after judge denies Trump's request
Axios | Lauren Floyd | 10/19/24

The judge in former President Trump's federal Jan. 6 case on Thursday evening rejected his lawyers' request to delay the court-ordered release of a redacted appendix of new evidence from special counsel Jack Smith.

Why it matters: Trump's lawyers said delaying the case until after the election would allow them to submit a counter to the appendix that the special counsel's office filed, but U.S. District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan denied their request and ordered Smith's dossier be unsealed with redactions on Friday.

Trump is in a close race against Vice President Kamala Harris and he was seeking to delay the appendix's release until after Nov. 14. ... Read more

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA v.s. DONALD J. TRUMP, Defendant | CRIMINAL NO. 23-cr-257

Harris' Independence Day: Takeaways from her interview with Fox News
Axios | Zachary Basu | 10/17/24

Vice President Harris ventured into the lion's den Wednesday to deliver a message that many Americans - including anxious Democrats - have been waiting to hear:

"My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden's presidency," Harris told Fox News' Bret Baier.

Why it matters: In the highest-risk interview of her campaign, Harris took the rare step of distancing herself from the unpopular, aging president she serves - touting a "new generation of leadership" to millions of skeptical Fox News viewers.

Key takeaways
1. Turning the page. ...
2. The border albatross. ...
3. No "basket of deplorables." ...

Between the lines: Both campaigns saw the interview through their own predictable, partisan lenses: Trump's side called it a "train wreck"; Harris' saw it as a "masterclass. ..." Read more

Election Subversion 2024: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver | 10/17/24 | 28:43

U.S. titans tighten supply chain grip
Axios | Hope King | 10/17/24

Driving the news: Amazon on Wednesday became the third Big Tech giant in recent weeks to announce ambitions to tap nuclear energy to power surging AI demand.

The company said that it's signed three new agreements to help develop nuclear energy projects: building at least four small modular nuclear reactors (SMR) in Washington state; exploring an SMR project in Virginia; and investing in fuel startup X-energy.

Separately, auto giant GM said today it's investing $625 million more in cash and credit into Canadian mining company Lithium Americas to help start a new joint venture in Nevada. ... Read more

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China controls the bulk of lithium refining, and that will pose a challenge to battery companies and car makers hoping to qualify for lucrative new tax credits.

Meet the billionaires funneling millions into the 2024 race
Axios | Ivana Saric | 10/16/24

A handful of powerful megadonors have played an outsized role in shaping the 2024 presidential race through mammoth donations toward their favored candidates.

Why it matters: The amount of money being injected into 2024 races means this election cycle is poised to become the most expensive federal election ever, according to a new analysis released by the research group OpenSecrets last week.

The big picture: President Biden's replacement on the Democratic ticket by Vice President Kamala Harris spurred "an enormous boost in fundraising" among Democrats, per OpenSecrets. ...

Elon Musk
Timothy Mellon
Miriam Adelson
Dick and Liz Uihlein
Mike Bloomberg
Reid Hoffman & Michelle Yee
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Israel vows to improve Gaza conditions after U.S. threat to withhold weapons
Axios | Barak Ravid | 10/16/24

Israeli officials have been assuring their U.S. counterparts that Israel will act quickly to improve the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza following an ultimatum from the Biden administration, two Israeli officials tell Axios.

Driving the news: Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of Defense Austin sent a letter to Israeli leaders on Monday warning that shipments of U.S. weapons to Israel could be affected if Israel does not take steps within 30 days to improve the conditions in Gaza, according to a copy of the letter obtained by Axios.

Senior U.S. officials emphasized that the letter was not intended as a pretext for withholding weapons but as an attempt to spur a change in direction from the Israeli government. ... Read more

In photos: Hurricane Milton's aftermath
Axios | Sareen Habeshian | 10/11/24

Hurricane Milton has resulted in at least eight deaths, as officials continued to survey damage from the storm on Thursday.

The big picture: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said the death toll from Wednesday night's hurricane was expected to rise in coming days, and the state was working to restore power and replenish fuel supply. Over 2.6 million people remained without electricity as of 8:45pm ET Thursday. ... Lots of photos

Behind the Curtain: The Republican welfare state
Axios | Jim VandeHei,Mike Allen | 10/11/24

Republicans spent decades railing against welfare recipients. Now, they're deeply reliant on them to win elections.

Why it matters: The explosion of people getting 25% or more of their income from government aid - and Republican reliance on their votes - vividly explains the rise of former President Trump and the remaking of the Republican Party.

The big picture: Trump rose to power with the backing of the working class, then reoriented the party to focus on them as much as big business.

This helps explain the massive surge in government spending under Trump, his continued opposition to trade agreements, his scorn for GOP ideas to gut Social Security and Medicare, and his us-vs.-them rhetoric. ... Read more

In photos: Northern lights dazzle skies across the U.S. and world
Axios | Rebecca Falconer | 10/11/24

The northern lights returned to skies across the U.S. and the world over Thursday night after a powerful solar storm triggered stunning celestial displays also known as aurora borealis.

The big picture: Extreme G5 geomagnetic conditions were observed reaching the Earth for the first time in 21 years on Thursday and remained at G4 levels overnight, per NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, which warned the storm had the potential to disrupt communications and the electric power grid. ... Lots of pictures

What we couldn't prepare for with Hurricane Milton
Axios | Erica Pandey | 10/10/24

The big picture: It's nearly impossible to fully prepare for the projected scale of devastation of a storm like Milton.

There are still people and pets in the path of the storm who weren't able to - or didn't - evacuate in time.

FEMA - whose workers will be on the front lines helping people and managing the destruction - is already short-staffed, and is now spread even thinner due to the back-to-back hits from Helene and Milton.

The scale of the storm itself and the unpredictability of its precise path meant that it was impossible to gauge where the most help would be needed on Florida's coast. ... Read more

Trump White House Got in the Way of Brett Kavanaugh Sexual Assault Investigation
The Intercept | Shawn Musgrave | 10/08/24

Six years after Brett Kavanaugh joined the Supreme Court’s conservative supermajority, a Democratic senator claims the FBI barely followed up on explosive sexual assault allegations that emerged during his nomination. A report released Tuesday lays out how White House officials kept a tight leash on the FBI’s inquiry, contrary to Trump’s claims at the time that the agency had “free rein” to investigate the claims. ... Read more

Investigation Into Sexual-Assault Allegations Against Justice Brett Kavanaugh

On July 9, 2018, President Donald Trump nominated then-Judge Brett Kavanaugh of the United States Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit to be an Associate Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court. Before his confrmation hearing, Kavanaugh was subject to a routine "full-feld" background investigation by the FBI, which is a standard part of the confrmation process for all judicial nominees.

On September 4, 2018, the Senate Committee on the Judiciary, following the ordinary procedure for considering Supreme Court nominees, commenced four days of hearings on Kavanaugh's nomination. On September 12, allegations of sexual misconduct by Kavanaugh, which had not been uncovered during the FBI's full-feld background investigation, began to surface. Over the next few days, Senators and the public learned of accusations by Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, a professor at Palo Alto University, that Kavanaugh had sexually assaulted her while the two were in high school. According to a letter Ford sent to Senator Dianne Feinstein, then the Ranking Member of the Judiciary Committee, "Brett Kavanaugh physically and sexually assaulted [Ford] during High School in the early 1980's" by locking her in a bedroom, climbing on top of her, attempting to remove her clothes, and putting his hand over her mouth to stop her from screaming.1 Kavanaugh publicly denied Ford's allegation.2

After Ford came forward, new allegations of sexual misconduct by Kavanaugh emerged, most notably from Deborah Ramirez, a classmate of Kavanaugh's at Yale University. On September 23, 2018, Te New Yorker reported Ramirez's allegation that, while in college, Kavanaugh "exposed himself at a drunken dormitory party, thrust his penis in her face, and caused her to touch it without her consent as she pushed him away."3 Kavanaugh publicly denied this allegation as well.4

Logan Act: Why it could be illegal for Trump to call Putin
Axios | Ivana Saric | 10/01/24

Recent revelations about former President Trump's personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin have raised questions about whether Trump violated U.S. law.

Why it matters: With just weeks to go before the presidential election, the reports from journalist Bob Woodward's new book "War" have raised fresh questions about Trump's ties with leaders of one of the U.S.' greatest geopolitical adversaries.

Driving the news: News of Trump's reported phone calls with Putin have caught the attention of his opponents as a possible violation of the Logan Act, which restricts private citizens from engaging in diplomatic affairs with U.S. rivals. ... Read more

Milton to hit Florida as "dangerous major hurricane" Wednesday night
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magazine | author | date

Threat level: The storm track is looking more likely to slip just south of Tampa Bay, between there and Sarasota. Where the peak surge hits will cause widespread, potentially "catastrophic" destruction, the National Weather Service warned.

The National Hurricane Center has lowered Tampa Bay's storm surge projections slightly, to a still-record-setting 8- to 12-foot surge above ground level.

As of Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center forecast brings the full wrath of the storm ashore near or just north of Sarasota, Siesta Key and Punta Gorda, with a "catastrophic" 10- to 15-foot surge. This forecast may still be adjusted. ... Read more

Timeline of Gaza | 3500 BCE to October 7th, 2023 | UsefulCharts | 07/xx/24 | 36:19

Historical Origin of the 12 Tribes of Israel | UsefulCharts | 03/xx/24 | 32:26

With Hurricane Milton, climate change is a key factor
Axios | Andrew Freedman | 10/08/24

Hurricane Milton, which reached the top 5 list of most intense storms on record in the Atlantic Ocean, poses a dire threat to Tampa Bay and other highly populated areas on Florida's west coast.

The big picture: Human-caused climate change is among several factors that conspired to propel Hurricane Milton's rarely seen "explosive" intensification.

Sea level rise tied to climate change makes this storm potentially more destructive today than it would have been even a few decades ago.

Threat level: The storm, now a high-end Category 4, is on course for a calamitous encounter with the 17th-biggest metro area in the U.S. That area is unusually vulnerable to storm surge due to its coastline's shape and large population living near sea level. ... Read more

Kamala Harris: The 2024 60 Minutes Interview | 60Minutes | 10/07/24 | 20:49

Why voters won't hear directly from Donald Trump in the 60 Minutes election special | 60Minutes | 10/07/24 | 2:09

Woodward's "War" reveals new Biden backstory
Axios | Mike Allen | 10/08/24/span>

The backstory: "War" - from Simon & Schuster, Woodward's longtime publisher - is about the collision of three ongoing wars. It covers events from Jan. 6, 2021, to mid-August 2024:

It started as a book about the war in Ukraine, beginning with the Russian buildup.

After Hamas' terrorist attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Woodward added the Middle East.

The struggle for the American presidency is at the center of it all.

Behind the scenes: Because Simon & Schuster pulls out all the stops for Woodward, he was able to make late changes to the manuscript after Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris on July 21. ... Read more

How Israel's war spread beyond Gaza
Axios | Dave Lawler,Jacque Schrag | 10/07/24

Hamas' Oct. 7 attack on Israel sparked immediate fears of regional war. A year later, those fears are close to fruition.

The big picture: Israel is fighting on two fronts, against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, while engaging in an escalating tit-for-tat with Iran, a key patron of both militant groups.

Driving the news: While the war in Gaza is ongoing, the heaviest fighting has recently shifted to southern Lebanon.

More than 1,000 people have died in Lebanon since Israel began an intense bombing campaign on Oct. 1, followed by a ground invasion.

Israel says its goal is to clear out Hezbollah infrastructure to allow civilians who fled northern Israel after Oct. 8, 2023 - when Israel and Hezbollah began exchanging cross-border strikes - to safely return home. ... Read more

Hurricane Milton: Dire scenario looms for Florida
Axios | Andrew Freedman | 10/07/24

Evacuations are underway in the Tampa Bay area and other parts of the Florida Gulf Coast as Category 3 Hurricane Milton rapidly intensifies and is forecast to make landfall midweek.

Threat level: The storm poses a dire scenario of a direct hit on Tampa Bay from the west-southwest, which would push an unprecedented 8-to-12-foot storm surge into the Bay and other locations along and to the south of where the eye crosses the coast.

Hurricane and storm surge watches have been issued along the state's west coast.

For comparison, the peak surge in Tampa Bay during Hurricane Helene was at the range 4 to 8 feet. It proved extremely damaging, and raised awareness about the city's overall surge risk exposure. ... Read more

Jack Smith's endgame
Axios | Sam Baker | 10/04/24

Special counsel Jack Smith's latest account of Jan. 6 is full of vivid new details depicting then-President Trump inflaming a violent insurrection despite knowing he had lost.

Why it matters: Smith and his team are pulling out everything they can muster to persuade the courts that their case against Trump should go forward.

The special counsel's latest brief, unsealed Wednesday, is an effort to keep the case against Trump alive in the face of the Supreme Court's ruling on presidential immunity.

Job No. 1 is to convince the courts that Trump's actions were the actions of a private person desperate to cling to power - not those of a president carrying out his official duties. And the additional evidence prosecutors put forward in their latest brief is designed to help make that arguments. ... Read more

Liz Cheney says at GOP birthplace it's "our duty" to reject Trump
Axios | Rebecca Falconer | 10/04/24

ormer Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) at a campaign event with Vice President Kamala Harris on Thursday urged voters to "reject the depraved cruelty" of former President Trump and vote for the Democratic presidential nominee.

The big picture: "In this election, putting patriotism ahead of partisanship is not an aspiration," said Cheney at the event in the birthplace of the Republican Party at Ripon, Wisconsin. "It is our duty."

"We cannot turn away from this truth," said Cheney in her first campaign event with Harris since she endorsed the Democrat last month. ... Read more

Federal Courts: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver | 10/03/24 | 27:10

Read: New filing unveils additional evidence in Trump's 2020 election case
Axios | Sareen Habeshian | 10/03/24

A lengthy motion from special counsel Jack Smith was unsealed Wednesday, making public what prosecutors say is new evidence that former President Trump and his allies tried to subvert the 2020 presidential election results.

The big picture: U.S. District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan unsealed the 165-page redacted motion, despite Trump's opposition.

In response to a recent Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity, Smith filed the motion seeking a determination Trump was acting as a private citizen and not as the president when he sought to overturn the 2020 election.... Read more

New filing unveils additional evidence in Trump's 2020 election case.pdf

Trump "resorted to crimes" to try to keep power in 2020, Jack Smith alleges
Axios | Erin Doherty,Sareen Habeshian | 10/03/24

Special counsel Jack Smith outlined in a motion unsealed by a judge on Wednesday what he called former President Trump's "increasingly desperate" efforts to subvert the 2020 presidential election results.

Why it matters: Trump and his legal team had opposed the motion, arguing it would interfere with the November election results. The filing unveils new details in connection to the Republican presidential nominee's Jan. 6 case.

U.S. District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan unsealed the redacted motion on Wednesday.

State of play: Smith in the motion wrote that Trump's "scheme was a private criminal effort." He emphasized throughout the document that the former president was acting in his capacity as a candidate, not a president. ... ... ... Read more

How Israel's air defenses knocked down Iran's missiles
Axios | Colin Demarest | 10/03/24

Israel's air defenses, supported by the U.S., mostly neutralized the threat from Iran's approximately 180-ballistic missile attack on Tuesday.

The big picture: Only one civilian was killed, in the West Bank, in one of the most intense aerial attacks Israel has ever faced. Once again, Israel's vaunted air defense systems lived up to their reputation.

How it happened: Israel's Arrow, designed to take out long-range missiles like the ones Iran launched, played a key role.

The system "performed as expected" and produced "wonderful" results, Israel Aerospace Industries CEO Boaz Levy told Axios. State-owned IAI developed the system in partnership with the U.S.

The Arrow is one of the most sophisticated air defense systems in the world, with an advanced radar system to detect incoming projectiles and supersonic interceptors to knock them down. ... Read more

Israel plans massive Iran payback with Middle East on edge
Axios | Barak Ravid | 10/02/24

Israeli officials staring down all-out regional war tell Axios Israel will launch a "significant retaliation" to Tuesday's massive missile attack within days that could target oil production facilities inside Iran and other strategic sites.

Why it matters: Israel and Iran have never been closer to opening up a new and far more dangerous front in the war that has engulfed the Middle East.

Iran threatened on Tuesday that if Israel responds with force to the nearly 200 missiles it launched on Tuesday, it will attack again.

If that happens, Israeli officials say all options will be on the table - including strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. ... Read more

Midwestern nice debate: Vance and Walz find surprising common ground
Axios | Erin Doherty ... | 10/02/24

The lone vice presidential debate between Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) was substantive and unusually civil, with the candidates exchanging policy proposals on immigration, abortion and gun violence but not personal attacks.

The big picture: VP debates rarely change the trajectory of an election - but this one did appear to temper the tone, however fleetingly.

Vance stepped out of his role as former President Trump's campaign trail attack dog. He laid out a new, more nuanced approach to "mass deportations" under a Trump-Vance administration and seemed to concede that abortion bans - which he has supported - can be harmful to some women.

Walz, for his part, nodded along with several of Vance's answers. At one point Vance laid out a very different approach to paid family leave than the one Walz had just espoused, and the Minnesota governor said he actually agreed with many of Vance's ideas and thought they could be incorporated into Harris' plans. ... Read more

In VP Debate, JD Vance Downplays Jan. 6 Insurrection & Refuses to Admit Trump Lost 2020 Election | DN | 10/02/24 | 4:31

OpenAI speeds ahead as it shifts to for-profit
Axios | Ina Fried | 10/02/24

OpenAI used a developer event in San Francisco on Tuesday to announce several capabilities, the most provocative of which allows developers to make use of the same real-time speech capabilities recently added to ChatGPT.

In showing off the product to the press on Monday, OpenAI chose a demo of the capability paired with Twilio's cloud communications platform.

In the demo, OpenAI showed its Realtime API powering an AI agent to make a call on its own to a fictional candy store and order 400 chocolate-covered strawberries.

Asked about safeguards, OpenAI said it wasn't watermarking its AI voice to allow it to be detected, or mandating how people disclose their use of AI. ... Read more

Past wars loom over Israel's ground operation in Lebanon
Axios | Barak Ravid | 10/01/24

Israeli officials insist their ground operation in southern Lebanon will be limited in scope and length.

But Israeli officials said that twice before - in 1982 and 2006. Those invasions of their northern neighbor escalated into far wider, deadlier and more protracted conflicts.

Why it matters: That could happen again. The most dramatic possible consequence of a ground invasion would be if it convinces Iran to change course and get directly involved to save the militia it has built for decades.

But there's another scenario U.S. officials have been warning about for months: pro-Iranian militias in Syria, Iraq and Yemen could come to Hezbollah's help and either send their fighters to Lebanon or open another front through Syria. ... Read more

Professor John Mearsheimer: 'Israel is trying to drag the US and Iran into a shooting war' | The Spectator | 10/01/24 | 40:13

The stock market's astonishing returns
Click to enlarge
Axios | Felix Salmon | 10/01/24

A year ago, the 30-year return for the S&P 500 was 834%, which is to say it rose just over ninefold between the end of Q3 1993 and the end of Q3 2023.

Today, the index's 30-year return is 1,135% - it's risen more than twelvefold in the past 30 years, and currently stands at an all-time high.

Why it matters: The stock market has been on a tear of late - up 34% over the past year and up 20% year to date.

That's the best stock-market performance in the first three quarters since 1997, and it's boosted total returns over pretty much any time horizon. ... Read more

Helene leaves "unimaginable" destruction in 5 states as death toll tops 100
Axios | Rebecca Falconer | 09/30/24

aHurricane Helene has left officials in five Southeastern states grappling to respond to the widespread destruction it caused after hitting Florida as a Category 4 storm last week, with the death toll now entering the triple digits.

The big picture: Officials raised the death count in Georgia from 17 to 25 Monday, bringing the number of storm-related deaths across six states to at least 107, per AP.

Officials on Sunday confirmed 30 deaths in the flood-hit Buncombe County, western North Carolina, where Asheville saw historic water level rises.

Officials also confirmed storm-related deaths in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia, as search and rescue teams continued to respond to the fallout from the hurricane that struck Florida late Thursday before moving into Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee. ... Read more

Climate Change's Breaking Points: We're Running Out of Time! | Thom Hartmann | 09/26/24 | 9:16

The Last Hours Part 1 | Thom Hartmann & Leonardo Dicaprio | -10yrs | 7:33

Nuclear power's AI renaissance
Axios | Ben Geman | 09/30/24

A new U.S. nuclear energy age may be dawning after years of false starts and dashed hopes.

Why it matters: The data centers powering the AI revolution have an insatiable thirst for energy. Major stakeholders - in Washington, Silicon Valley and beyond - see nuclear energy as one of the answers.

Driving the news: The Energy Department announced this morning it had finalized a $1.5 billion loan to stake the revival of the Holtec Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan. It'd be the first American nuclear plant to be restarted.

The news comes a week after tech giant Microsoft and Constellation Energy unveiled a $1.6 billion power purchase deal to restart a dormant reactor at Pennsylvania's Three Mile Island plant in 2028. ... ... ... Read more

Historic and deadly Hurricane Helene slams Florida to the Carolinas
Axios | Andrew Freedman | 09/27/24

Hurricane Helene is one of the most expansive and damaging hurricanes on record for the Southeast, owing to its unusual size and rapid intensification.

The big picture: As of Friday morning, at least three people had died as a result of the massive storm, AP reports. More than 1 million customers were without power in Florida, with at least another 2.9 million in Georgia and the Carolinas, according to poweroutage.us.

Helene's effects extend across a wide area, causing record inland flooding in western North Carolina and unprecedented storm surge flooding in Tampa.

The storm spared Atlanta from its strongest winds, but the center of the storm made it within 100 miles of the city as a hurricane, with the most damage occurring to the east-southeast of the city.

One stunning stat: With 140 mph maximum sustained winds, Helene was the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida, where the peninsula curves into the panhandle. ... Read more

Jack Smith files evidence under seal against Trump in Jan. 6 case
Axios | Rebecca Falconer | 09/27/24

Special counsel Jack Smith filed a sealed legal brief in former President Trump's federal Jan. 6 case Thursday, outlining legal arguments for criminally prosecuting the Republican presidential nominee over efforts to overturn the 2020 election results.

Why it matters: U.S. District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan will decide whether or not to publicly release the brief containing previously unseen evidence, or a redacted version of it, and it's possible this could occur before November's presidential election.

Context: Smith in August filed a slimmed-down, superseding indictment that Trump's legal team opposes, after the conservative-majority U.S. Supreme Court ruled that presidents have immunity for "official acts."

State of play: The Supreme Court left it for Chutkan to determine whether Trump's alleged conduct in this was protected under presidential immunity. ... Read more

U.S., France and key allies call for a 21-day ceasefire in Lebanon
Axios | Barak Ravid | 09/26/24

The U.S., France and key allies issued a joint statement on Wednesday calling on Israel and Hezbollah to agree to a 21-day ceasefire during which negotiations could take place on a diplomatic solution to the crisis on the Israeli-Lebanese border.

Why it matters: The statement - released after 10 days of intense fighting that has killed more than 700 people in Lebanon - is aimed at stopping the escalation and particularly at preventing a possible Israeli ground invasion of southern Lebanon to push Hezbollah militants away from the border.

The joint statement was issued by the U.S., France, Australia, Canada, European Union, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. ... Read more

Israel's foreign minister rules out US-French ceasefire proposal saying 'There will be no ceasefire in the north'
The Guardian | Martin Belam | 09/27/24

In a message posted to social media, Katz said: "There will be no ceasefire in the north. We will continue to fight against the terrorist organization Hezbollah with all our might until victory and the safe return of the residents of the north to their homes.""

Benjamin Netanyahu's office also appeared dismissive of the proposal, saying "The news about a ceasefire - not true. This is an American-French proposal, to which the prime minister did not even respond." ... Read more

House passes bill to head off government shutdown until December
Axios | Andrew Solender | 09/26/24

The U.S. House on Wednesday passed a bill to fund the federal government through Dec. 20, punting a potential government shutdown until after the Nov. 5 election.

Why it matters: The Senate is poised to act quickly on the measure, which House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) embraced after trying and failing to rally Republicans around a six-month extension.

Former President Trump complicated the process by repeatedly demanding Republicans attach legislation, called the SAVE Act, requiring proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections. Ultimately, that language was left out of the bill so that Democrats would support it. ... Read more

Harris to make her case as champion of U.S. middle class in economic speech
Axios | Rebecca Falconer | 09/25/24

Why it matters: The Harris campaign believes this speech could help define the Democratic presidential nominee as a champion of the middle class and Trump as being for billionaires, as she emphasizes her middle-class upbringing and his more prosperous start to life.

Polls show Harris is as trusted as Trump on the economy and one survey conducted after this month's presidential debate had her slightly ahead. A senior campaign official said they aim to further enhance this with her Pittsburgh speech.

State of play: Harris' speech will build on already-announced policy positions on the economy.

These include a $25,000 tax credit and other incentives for first-time homebuyers, banning price gouging on food and groceries, expanding a tax break for creating a small business, lowering health care costs and taxing long-term capital gains at 28% for wealthy Americans.

Trump briefed on "threats from Iran to assassinate him," his campaign says
Axios | Rebecca Falconer | 09/25/24

U.S. officials see Iran as the biggest nation-state threat to November's elections. Last week, U.S. investigators said Iranian "malicious cyber actors" emailed associates of President Biden's re-election campaign with "non-public material" stolen from Trump's campaign over the summer.

Details: Trump campaign communications director Steven Cheung said in a Tuesday evening statement that officials from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) had briefed the ex-president "regarding real and specific threats from Iran to assassinate him in an effort to destabilize and sow chaos" in the U.S.

"Intelligence officials have identified that these continued and coordinated attacks have heightened in the past few months, and law enforcement officials across all agencies are working to ensure President Trump is protected and the election is free from interference," Cheung said. ... Read more

Israel's MURDEROUS Rampage In Lebanon: Mass Slaughter Beckons | Owen Jones | 09/24/24 | 9:06

Israeli blitz obliterates Hezbollah rocket base hidden in 'civilian' home | The Sun | 09/24/24 | 13:43

Israel Bombed Lebanon Today, Killing Hundreds. The U.S. Is Sending More Bombs.
TheIntercept | Jonah Valdez | 09/23/24

The Israeli military has embarked upon a massive bombing campaign in Lebanon. Last week, it began with the remote detonation of thousands of personal electronic devices. On Friday, an Israeli strike leveled a building in the Beirut suburbs. On Sunday and into Monday, the bombings expanded into the largest attack on Lebanon since Israel's 2006 invasion. All told, the Israeli military bombed 1,300 targets, killing at least 490 people, including more than 90 children and women.

The death toll is already the highest since the 2006 Israel–Hezbollah War, and certainly the worst since October 7, when Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shia group backed by Iran, began exchanging strikes. The Israeli government continued its attacks over the course of the day Monday, hitting a Beirut suburb with three missiles, injuring at least six others. While Israel said it targeted Hezbollah's weapons supplies, Lebanon's health minister also said the strikes hit hospitals, medical centers, and ambulances. ... Read more

America's secret opinions
Axios | Erica Pandey | 09/24/24Click to enlarge

Why it matters: Politicians and institutions take cues and shape policies based on public opinion - but these stated opinions might not truly reflect what people want.

61% of Americans admit to "self-silencing" - keeping their true opinions on sensitive topics to themselves.

Zoom in: Populace, a Massachusetts think tank, and YouGov polled Americans to gauge their public and private views on topics like trust in government, gun control, higher education and the border.

How it works: Respondents were provided a mix of traditional polling questions and other questions using a list experiment method, or item-count technique, that provides them with a greater sense of anonymity. ... Read more

Israeli strikes kill 274 in southern Lebanon: Lebanese Health Ministry
Axios | Barak Ravid | 09/23/24

Lebanon's health ministry said at least 274 people were killed and more than 1,000 wounded in a massive wave of Israeli air strikes in southern Lebanon on Monday.

Why it matters: The barrage of strikes come with Israel and Hezbollah staring down the possibility of all-out war. They were the most wide-ranging and deadliest the Israel Defense Forces have launched inside Lebanon since the 2006 war between Israel and the militant group.

The latest: Lebanon's health minister said there is a massive displacement of civilians from southern Lebanon after the Israeli airstrikes. Those killed in the attacks included women, children, and paramedics.

Israel Defense Forces said 150 rockets were fired from Lebanon after the Israeli airstrikes. Dozens of rockets were launched toward the Haifa area and farther south in Israel. Sirens went off in Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank about 60 miles south of the border with Lebanon. ... Read more

Why Democratic super PACs aren't focused on attacking Trump
Politico | Jessica Piper | 09/23/24

Democratic super PACs are taking an unusual approach in this year's presidential race: They're not focusing on former President Donald Trump.

A significant majority of this cycle's spending by pro-Democratic outside groups - which typically function as attack dogs - is going to ads aiming to drive positive perceptions of Vice President Kamala Harris. It's a particularly striking shift after a majority of similar groups' spending in both 2016 and 2020 was focused on driving up Trump's negatives, a POLITICO analysis of ad spending found.

That stark contrast reflects a challenging reality: Harris began her abbreviated campaign comparatively unknown to many voters, setting off a frenzy to define her in the final weeks of the election. That's particularly pronounced because this is Trump's third presidential run in a row - and even after his attempts to overturn the 2020 election results and his four indictments and conviction earlier this year, voters' views of him are largely set. ... Read more

Democrats are outspending Republicans nationwide
Axios | Alex Fitzpatrick,Kavya Beheraj | 09/23/24

Democrats are outspending Republicans on political ads by about a half-billion dollars since Aug. 1, according to data from analytics platform AdImpact.

By the numbers: As of Sept. 20, Democrats have spent $1.8 billion on ads booked for Aug. 1 through Nov. 5, compared to $1.3 billion for Republicans.

That includes spending by campaigns (from the presidential candidates down to lower-ballot hopefuls) as well as by outside groups.

Campaigns alone, Democrats have spent nearly $700 million, compared to almost $400 million by Republicans. ... Read more

Fentanyl fueling worst drug crisis in U.S. history, killing 70,000 a year | 60 Minutes| 09/22/24 | 13:21

Behind the Curtain: The worst of 2016 and 2020 unite
Axios | Jim VandeHei,Mike Allen | 09/20/24

Good, long article. This is the conclusion:

Not to be downers, but end with this thought experiment: How confident are you that the election results will be seen as valid, unpolluted by fake news and free of political violence?

If you're like most Americans, you're bracing for the worst.

67% expressed anxiety about the election in a recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll. 60% cited "political violence" as the election outcome they're most anxious about. ... Read more

Trump says if he loses to Harris, "Jewish people would have a lot to do" with it
Axios | Rebecca Falconer | 09/20/24

Trump received a warm reception at the "Fighting Antisemitism in America" event, but he was accused outside of the summit of "dangerous antisemitism" for saying "if I don't win this election," then "the Jewish people would have a lot to do with a loss."

Trump spoke at two events in D.C. Thursday ahead of the first anniversary of Hamas' Oct. 7 attack on Israel that sparked a war in Gaza that's killed more than 40,000 Palestinians and 1,600 Israelis.

He pointed to having a Jewish daughter, son-in-law and grandchildren as he sought to court the Jewish vote.

State of play: "If I don't win this election - and Jewish people would have a lot to do with that, 60% are voting for the enemy - Israel will cease to exist in two years," Trump said at the Israeli-American Council event.

"If I do win, Israel will be safe and secure, and we'll stop the toxic poison of antisemitism." ... Read more

America's new election shields: panic buttons, bulletproof glass
Axios | Sophia Cai | 09/20/24

From bulletproof glass to panic buttons, jurisdictions across the U.S. are taking unprecedented steps to protect election workers and ballots amid concerns about voter intimidation, fraud and even violence at the polls.

Why it matters: The moves are stark reminders of how Donald Trump's allegations of rigged elections have undermined some Americans' trust and made election officials - many of them volunteers - the focus of suspicion and threats.

Officials are already on edge: This week, the FBI and the U.S. Postal Inspection Service launched an investigation after officials in 16 states reported receiving suspicious packages.

Several secretaries of state reported being mailed letters containing white powder. ... Read more

Ex-Trump advisers help to grow pro-Russia website that spreads misinformation
TheGuardian | Matt Bernardini | 09/19/24

George Papadopoulos and others involved in Intelligencer, increasingly popular source of news in rightwing circles.

Amid the recent crackdown on Russian influence in American media, a group of former Trump advisers and operatives have quietly helped build a pro-Russian website that frequently spreads debunked conspiracy theories about the war in Ukraine, election fraud and vaccines.

Working alongside contributors for Kremlin state media, the former Donald Trump policy aide George Papadopoulos, his wife, Simona Mangiante, and others have become editorial board members of the website Intelligencer, which is increasingly becoming a source of news for those in the rightwing ecosystem.... Read more

Altman previews big leaps ahead for OpenAI's Strawberry
Axios | author | date

Speaking at a T-Mobile event Wednesday in San Francisco, Altman likened where o1 is today to where OpenAI's language models were when GPT-2 came out in 2019. He said to expect massive improvements in the coming years, similar to the path from GPT-2 to the current GPT-4.

Unlike most generative AI models, OpenAI's o1 is capable of planning out its approach when it responds to a query - and can even explore multiple approaches before providing an answer. Other models, including OpenAI's current flagship GPT-4o, begin answering immediately, spinning out responses as they go along.

OpenAI has rolled out a preview of o1 as well as a smaller model specifically for coding, o1 mini, with certain paid customers able to perform a limited number of o1 queries per week.

OpenAI has laid out a five-level approach to describe the capability of its systems.

ChatGPT achieved the first level — an AI chatbot capable of carrying on a conversation.

Level two AI can achieve human-level problem solving. Altman said Wednesday that the reasoning capabilities of o1 are taking OpenAI from the first stage to the beginning of the second one.

At level three, AI can act as an independent agent. Level four AI can help discover new information, and at level five, AI can do the work of an entire organization. ... Read more

Michigan Republicans flock to Trump: Some see 'the hand of God' in action
Politico | Adam Wren | 09/17/24

Many Trump supporters are attributing his survival to the divine.

FLINT, Michigan - They wore it on their T-shirts and expressed it in the way they kneeled to pray: At his first event after the Secret Service opened fire on a suspected gunman hiding in the bushes around Trump's Florida golf club - the second apparent assassination attempt on his life in almost as many months - Trump's supporters were invoking the divine.

Over and over here Tuesday, they asked themselves, who was this lucky? And was it luck, or something more like providence that helped Trump had been able to survive not one but two attempts on his life.

"The hand of God is with him," said Connie Hahne, 68.

Craig Nagy, a bakery owner who wore a T-shirt that read "JESUS IS MY SAVIOR TRUMP IS MY PRESIDENT," said, "God knows what we need." ... Read more

Johnson's colleagues baffled by his shutdown strategy
Axios | Andrew Solender | 09/18/24

House members in both parties are perplexed about House Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-La.) decision to revive a short-term government funding bill that he pulled last week.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), asked if he has any sense of why Johnson is reviving the bill, told Axios, "I have no idea."

"I don't know how he thinks it's going to pass ... where are the votes coming from?" said Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas).

Another House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity, called Johnson's plan "puzzling" and predicted that it will frustrate some GOP lawmakers.

Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.), a senior member of the House Appropriations Committee, told reporters: "There's an old saying in Arkansas that you don't learn nothing the second time you get kicked in the head by a mule." ... Read more

Suspicious packages mailed to election officials across U.S.
Axios | Rebecca Falconer |09/18/24

Election officials in at least 15 U.S. states have been targeted with suspicious packages, and several secretaries of state reported Tuesday being mailed letters containing white powder.

The big picture: The FBI and U.S. Postal Inspection Service are "investigating a series of suspicious mailings sent to election officials in several states," per a joint statement from the agencies Tuesday evening. "Some of the letters contained an unknown substance."

Early voting is already under way ahead of November's election and states have stepped up security measures across the U.S.

Justice Department officials have investigated dozens of reports of threats against election workers this year that have resulted in criminal charges, and have warned the U.S. is in a "new era in which the election community is scapegoated, targeted, and attacked." ... ... ... Read more

Tupperware files for bankruptcy
Axios | Rebecca Falconer | 09/18/24

The Orlando-based food storage product seller has seen sales slump in recent years and looked to be headed toward bankruptcy last year, but then company officials expressed confidence in the brand when they announced a debt restructuring deal in August 2023.

However, Tupperware has struggled to attract customers as it sought to reinvent itself by selling products via Amazon and Target and expanding beyond containers to include cooking gadgets, per Axios' Hope King.

"Over the last several years, the Company's financial position has been severely impacted by the challenging macroeconomic environment," Tupperware president and CEO Laurie Ann Goldman said in a statement.

That led the firm to pursue "strategic alternatives to support our transformation into a digital-first, technology-led company better positioned to serve our stakeholders," Goldman added. ... Read more

Tropical rainstorm floods Carolinas with heavy rains, threatens Mid-Atlantic
Axios | Rebecca Falconer | 09/17/24

A tropical rainstorm that is taking aim at the Mid-Atlantic has flooded the Carolinas with "historic" rains, inundating homes, roads and vehicles and prompting water rescues.

The big picture: Flash flood and tropical storm warnings were in effect for portions of North and South Carolina Monday into Tuesday due to the unnamed system that the National Hurricane Center referred to as Potential Tropical Cyclone 8, as it dumped more than a foot of rain in some places.

Carolina Beach in New Hanover County, N.C, saw 18.32 inches of rainfall by Monday afternoon, while Hood Creek in Brunswick County recorded its highest water level ever at 14.11 feet during the deluge. ... Read more

Mark Cuban deals NIGHTMARE blow to Trump | BTC | 09/17/24 | 44:00

Schumer loses patience with Johnson over government shutdown standoff
Axios | Stephen Neukam,Stef W. Kight | 09/17/24

With two weeks until a potential government shutdown, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is losing patience with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), signaling the Senate is prepared to move first.

Why it matters: Schumer knows Johnson is cornered by his own party. But Schumer has members - especially Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) - who can't afford to waste valuable time in D.C.

Zoom in: If Johnson manages to get a partisan bill through the House - the current bill is a six-month funding extension with a bill attached that would require proof of citizenship to register to vote - the Senate will strip it down to a three-month funding extension with no policy riders and send it straight back. ... Read more

I read the full 900-page Project 2025 manifesto - here's why it matters
TheGuardian | Rachel Leingang | 09/14/24

My own consumption of the project was not as piecemeal – I read the full conservative manifesto by the Heritage Foundation and its many rightwing allies. Here’s what I learned from the document and all the controversy surrounding it.

Project 2025’s policy guidebook, Mandate for Leadership, describes an America poisoned by “wokeness” and overtaken by lawlessness and chaos, where conservatives need to seize power immediately - and for as long as possible - to right a sinking ship.

The guide is just one part of the broader plan Project 2025 and Heritage had in mind to dismantle the government, recruit thousands of politically aligned people to staff an incoming Trump administration, and quickly guide the next president into the steps needed to accomplish their preferred policy changes. ... Read more

I read the full 900-page Project 2025 manifesto_The Guardian.pdf

Project-2025.pdf

At Least Two Saudi Officials May Have Deliberately Assisted 9/11 Hijackers, New Evidence Suggests
ProPublica | Tim Golden | 09/11/24

Newly revealed information also raises questions about whether the FBI and CIA mishandled or downplayed evidence of the kingdom’s possible ties to the plotters.

From the start of U.S. investigations into the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the question of whether the Saudi government might have been involved has hovered over the case.

The FBI, after the most extensive criminal probe in its history, concluded that a low-level Saudi official who helped the first two hijackers in California met them by chance and aided them unwittingly. The CIA said it saw no evidence of a higher-level Saudi role. The bipartisan 9/11 commission adopted those findings. A small FBI team continued to dig into the question, turning up information that raised doubts about some of those conclusions. ... Read more

Just the Facts About the US Economy | USAFacts | 09/08/24 | 14:15

Trump's election interference case in Georgia narrowed by judge
Axios | Sareen Habeshian | 09/13/24

A Georgia judge on Thursday dismissed three criminal counts in the 2020 election subversion case against former President Trump and his co-defendants.

The big picture: Fulton County Superior Judge Scott McAfee allowed the remaining charges against Trump and his co-defendants to proceed despite the defendants' argument that elections are a purely federal matter and don't belong in state court.

All three of the dismissed charges concerned fake electors' attempts to file false documents with the state. Two of the three dismissed charges applied to Trump.

Zoom in: McAfee ruled that an 1890 U.S. Supreme Court decision "preempts the State's ability to prosecute perjury and false filings in a federal district court." ... Read more

Behind the Curtain: Trump's big, unfixable, glaring glitch
Axios | Jim VandeHei,Mike Allen | 09/12/24

Here's what troubles former President Trump's advisers most: He knew that with precision and preparation, Vice President Harris would bait him on things like crowd size, and buck discussion about her power today and liberalism in the past.

He knew exactly how to try to turn each moment against her.

Why it matters: But he blew it badly ... repeatedly ... predictably. He simply cannot help himself, Trump insiders begrudgingly admit.

No practice, pleas or sage advice keep Trump from being Trump.

It's a feature - not a correctable bug. ... ... ... Read more

California faces "dangerous" situation as wildfires threaten U.S. West
Axios | Rebecca Falconer,Andrew Freedman | 09/12/24

Officials in Southern California are urging residents to "heed all evacuation orders" as firefighters battle three massive wildfires - among 65 burning across the U.S. West.

Threat level: California Gov. Gavin Newsom proclaimed a state of emergency in Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties in response to the Bridge Fire and in Orange and Riverside counties in response to the Airport Fire Wednesday evening.

At least five firefighters and two civilians have been injured in the Airport Fire and California's other large blaze, the Line Fire, has wounded three firefighters, according to Cal Fire.

Evacuation orders were affecting some 34,000 California residents and evacuation warnings were impacting 97,000 others, amid reports of multiple structures razed and dramatic rescues: ... ... ... Read more

Harris's Debate Smackdown | Trump's Bizarre Pet Rumor | A Hidden Message In Taylor's Endorsement? | The Late Show with Stephen Colbert | 09/12/24 | 11:38

Jimmy Kimmel Breaks Down the Presidential Debate Between Donald Trump & Kamala Harris | Jimmy Kimmel Live | 09/11/24 | 17:11

Jon Stewart Tackles Harris & Trump's Debate and What This Means for the Election | The Daily Show | 09/11/24 | 19:30

Trump takes the bait: Takeaways from Harris' big night
Axios | Zachary Basu | 09/11/24

Over and over at last night's presidential debate, Kamala Harris set traps surgically designed to provoke, rattle and enrage Donald Trump.

And over and over, Trump stepped right into them.

Why it matters: With just eight weeks until the election, Harris delivered for Democrats on the biggest possible stage - the type of national stage that ended President Biden's political career less than three months ago.

She did so by being "exquisitely prepared," as former Trump debate coach Chris Christie described her, and by exploiting her opponent's well-documented triggers.

The result was a firehouse of angry rants and bizarre claims by Trump - including a baseless conspiracy theory about immigrants eating pet cats and dogs - that will fuel headlines and Democratic ads for weeks. ... ... ... Read more

Full Debate: Harris vs. Trump in 2024 Presidential Debate | WSJ | 09/11/24 | 1:49:25

Trump denies any link to Project 2025 under pressure from Harris
Axios | Erin Doherty | 09/11/24

Vice President Harris tied former President Trump to Project 2025 early in their contentious presidential debate, claiming he is preparing to unleash a dangerous agenda.

Why it matters: Trump has tried to distance himself from the conservative playbook in recent weeks, as Democrats repeatedly try to link him to it.

Project 2025, which proposes a dramatic expansion of executive branch power, is not an official Trump campaign platform, but it was created by several of the former president's allies.

In addition to giving the president unprecedented control over the federal bureaucracy, it calls for hardline positions on issues like abortion. ... Read more

Phase Two of Trump's Project 2025 | Powered By Rainbows | 09/07/24 | 21:55

Fall is getting warmer nationwide
Axios | Alex Fitzpatrick,Kavya Beheraj | 09/10/24

Fall is getting warmer across the continental U.S., a new analysis finds.

Why it matters: Warmer autumns mean more demand for cooling (and thus higher energy use), longer wildfire seasons, big changes for farmers and gardeners, etc.

Driving the news: Fall temperatures rose 2.5°F on average between 1970 and 2023 across 234 locations analyzed in a new Climate Central report.

The nonprofit climate research group's analysis is based on average temperatures between September and November of each year.

Zoom in: Reno (+7.7°F), El Paso (+6.1°F) and Las Vegas (+6.1°F) saw the biggest increases in average fall temperature among U.S. cities.

Between the lines: The fall trends are consistent with climate science findings showing how the planet is responding to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide. ... Read more

Swelling wildfires in California and Nevada force thousands to evacuate
Axios | Rebecca Falconer,Andrew Freedman | 09/10/24

Fast-moving wildfires in California and Nevada have left tens of thousands of people under mandatory evacuation orders, numerous structures threatened and air quality impacted, as a dangerous heat wave grips much of the Southwestern U.S.

The big picture: California Gov. Gavin Newsom activated the National Guard Monday in response to the massive Line Fire in San Bernardino County - one of seven large blazes in California and 67 large fires burning across the western U.S. as of Monday, per the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC).

Newsom proclaimed an emergency in San Bernardino County on Saturday over the fire that's left over 11,000 people under evacuation orders

Meanwhile, Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo declared an emergency Sunday in response to the Davis Fire, south of Reno, where evacuation orders affected some 20,000 people. ... Read more

Phase Two of Trump's Project 2025 | Powered By Rainbows | 09/07/24 | 21:55

The West Bank: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver | 08/01/24 | 30:37

Behind the Curtain: Toss-up America
Axios | Jim VandeHei,Mike Allen | 09/09/24

In an election year, everyone acts like they're Nate Silver - a prognosticator with complex theories on who'll win the White House.

Why it matters: They all have something in common - they're full of it when expressing any confidence in any predictive outcomes.

The reason: You live in a toss-up nation, where every election brings coin-toss-close fights to run American government.

This has been true for nearly every election since 2000, and will likely remain true until a seismic shift alters our concrete 50-50 reality.

A big national poll of likely voters released Sunday by the N.Y. Times and Siena College showed a neck-and-neck race: Former President Trump leads Vice President Harris 48% to 47% - well within the margin of error (+- 2.8 points). ... Read more

Trump Takes Question After Question About The Economy, National Security, And More | Forbes | 09/06/24 | 18:57

Trump's debate playbook: Call the rules 'rigged' and undermine the moderators
Politico | Alex Isenstadt and Meridith McGraw | 09/09/24

Donald Trump is laying the foundation for a "rigged" debate on ABC News before he squares off with Kamala Harris.

In interviews, fundraising appeals, rallies, and posts on social media, the former president has repeatedly blasted the host network and accused its top talent of being biased against him. He's even accused the network, without evidence, of providing the questions in advance to the Harris campaign.

"ABC is the worst network in terms of fairness," Trump said during a Fox News town hall with Sean Hannity recently. "They're very nasty, and I think a lot of people are going to be watching to see how nasty and how unfair they are."

"Do you think ABC will give Kamala every question beforehand? We already know her liberal media cronies would do ANYTHING to keep her from getting embarrassed the same way Biden was!" Trump said in a fundraising appeal. "I'm coming into this at a disadvantage - taking on Crooked Kamala AND the Fake News - but with you in my ear, I'm NOT SCARED OF ANYTHING!"" ... Read more

The globe just had its hottest summer on record
Axios | Andrew Freedman | 09/06/24

The global average surface temperatures from June through August were the hottest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Why it matters: The period, which comprises summer in the Northern Hemisphere, brought a spate of extreme heat, wildfires and other extreme events.

Europe had its hottest summer on record, with deadly heat events repeatedly affecting Greece, Italy and Spain, along with wildfires.

Zoom in: Copernicus, an EU science center, now projects that 2024 will surpass 2023 as the globe's hottest year on record.

The planet had its hottest August on record, tied with the same month the year before.

Thirteen of the past 14 months have seen global average surface temperatures that exceeded 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, which is a key warming target under the Paris Agreement.

In July, the globe recorded a string of the four hottest days on record stretching back for at least 100,000 years. ... ... ... Read more

Climate Change | 60 Minutes Marathon| 2006-2022 | 3:55:02

Phoenix hits 100 days of 100° with no end to the streak in sight
Axios | Jessica Boehm,Andrew Freedman | 09/03/24

Phoenix has smashed heat record after heat record this summer and is on track to top some more as a deadly heat wave is forecast to arrive Wednesday.

Why it matters: Extreme heat is becoming increasingly common in Phoenix and the Southwest.

Heat contributed to 645 deaths in metro Phoenix last year. The Maricopa County Office of the Medical Examiner has already confirmed 177 heat-related deaths this year and is investigating another 436.

State of play: Phoenix hit 100° for the 100th day in a row Tuesday, and the streak has no end in sight. The previous 100-plus-degree streak was 76 days, set in 1993.

Phoenix's average temperature of the meteorological summer (June-August) was 98.9° - beating the record of 97° from last year, per National Weather Service Phoenix meteorologist Sean Benedict. ... Read more

4 dead, 9 hospitalized in shooting at Georgia high school
Axios | Kristal Dixon | 09/05/24

A 14-year-old Apalachee High School student has been charged with murder after four people died and nine others were injured in a shooting at the Winder, Georgia, school on Wednesday, officials said.

The big picture: Georgia Bureau of Investigation director Chris Hosey identified the suspected shooter as 14-year-old Colt Gray, and said he will be tried as an adult. Investigators believe the suspect used an "AR-platform-style weapon," Hosey said at a Wednesday night news conference.

Georgia authorities identified the two students killed in the shooting as Mason Schermerhorn and Christian Angulo, both 14-years-old, and math teachers Christina Irimie, 53, and Richard Aspinwall, 39, who was also an assistant football coach.

Of the additional nine people injured, the GBI said eight were students and one was a teacher. "We don't expect any more fatalities at this time," Barrow County Sheriff Jud Smith said at the Wednesday evening news conference. ... Read more

Scoop: U.S. and Israel quietly discuss options to cool tensions with Lebanon
Axios | Barak Ravid | 09/05/24

Senior officials from the U.S. and Israel held a low-profile virtual meeting on Tuesday to discuss how to ease tensions with Lebanon and prevent an all out war between Israel and Hezbollah, four Israeli and U.S. officials said.

Why it matters: The meeting, which hasn't been announced by the White House or the Israeli government, was initiated by the Biden administration to take the pulse on the Israeli side and coordinate their policies about the situation in Lebanon, officials said.

Driving the news: Ten days ago, Israel and Hezbollah engaged in the most extensive exchange of fire since the the Shia group attacked Israel on Oct. 8. ... Read more

Jail, MAGA lies & coup crimes: See 'Trump playbook' shredded in criminal court | MSNBC | 09/05/24 | 12:18

Behind the Curtain: America's most wanted
Axios | Mike Allen,Jim VandeHei | 09/04/24

In private, top advisers to Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump agree on three things:

Harris had a phenomenal month: record fundraising, little serious scrutiny, plus enthusiasm and party unity that few expected.

Trump had a rough month: a lackluster, at best, vice presidential rollout, and no lasting change in tone after surviving an on-camera assassination attempt.

Yet the race is within the polling margins of error in all seven swing states - Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.

Why it matters: Each candidate will use the next 62 days to try to solidify and amplify several specific groups of voters.

The big picture: Harris has made progress toward restoring President Biden's winning coalition from 2020, which was imperiled when he was still the Democratic candidate. But Wall Street Journal polling shows Harris hasn't erased gains Trump had made among Black, Latino and young voters. ... ... ... Read more

Heat wave to scorch Southwest, West as wildfire concerns increase
Axios | Andrew Freedman | 09/04/24

After one of the hottest summers on record, many cities in the Southwest and West are preparing for a significant heat wave beginning midweek.

Threat level: A strong heat dome will send temperatures soaring into the 100s°F to 110s°F in Phoenix and Las Vegas, with triple-digit heat also affecting much of inland California.

Coming off the record hot and dry summer, wildfire risks are especially high in California and surrounding states.

This season has already brought the Park Fire, which stands as California's fourth-largest wildfire on record.

Oregon has also had a severe wildfire season, and it too will see dangerously hot temperatures combined with gusty, dry winds during this event. New fires ignited in central Oregon over Labor Day weekend from lightning strikes amid dry conditions. ... Read more

In Pursuit of Peace in Israel and Palestine by Gershom Baskin



Interview with Amy at DemocracyNow (see right column)

As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejects growing domestic and international calls to accept a Gaza ceasefire deal, we go to Jerusalem to speak to Gershon Baskin of the human rights advocacy group International Communities Organization. Baskin has spent years as a back-channel Israeli negotiator with Hamas in ceasefire deals, including throughout Israel's current war on Gaza. "It's very clear that Netanyahu doesn't want to end the war," says Baskin, who calls for all remaining stakeholders, including Hamas, the United States and Israeli protesters, to increase pressure on the defiant prime minister.

Mongolia declines to arrest Putin, defying ICC warrant
Axios | vana Saric | 09/03/24

Russian President Putin arrived in Mongolia Monday evening without incident - despite the host country being legally obligated to arrest him on an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant.

Why it matters: This is Putin's first visit to an ICC member nation since the court issued a warrant for his arrest last year for alleged war crimes in Ukraine.

The warrant has complicated Putin's international travel plans. He skipped a summit in South Africa last year after it was issued. ... Read more

Gender gap widens in support for Harris vs. Trump: poll
Axios | Mike Allen | 09/03/24

Vice President Kamala Harris has widened her advantage among women, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll.

Why it matters: Harris' 18-point gender gap support over former President Trump is another indicator that November is set to be the "boys versus girls" election in both turnout and tone.

Among women, Harris leads by 13 points, 54%-41%.

Among men, former President Trump leads by 5 points, 51%-46% (not statistically significant).

Zoom out: The election has been defined by the masculinity and femininity on either side, including with policy, even before Harris became the Democrats' nominee. ... Read more

A third of K-12 students are behind grade level
Axios | Alex Fitzpatrick | 09/03/24

About a third of U.S. K-12 students this school year are behind grade level, according to a recent survey.

Why it matters: Schools are still dealing with the long-term effects of remote schooling and other pandemic-era learning disruptions.

How it works: The data, current as of the end of the 2023-24 school year, is from the School Pulse Panel, a monthly National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) survey of nearly 4,000 nationally representative grade schools.

For the June 2024 data, 1,651 of those schools responded.

The idea is to track key education metrics in near real time as teachers and administrators grapple with post-pandemic learning loss and other challenges. ... Read more

Inside Harris' delicate balancing act on the economy
Axios | Hans Nichols | 08/30/24

In her CNN interview Thursday, Vice President Kamala Harris gave her most forceful defense of President Biden's economic record since becoming the Democratic nominee for president.

Why it matters: But in a reflection of her campaign's "move forward" theme, Harris couldn't bring herself to repeat a word that CNN's Dana Bash used to describe the president's approach to lowering unemployment and tackling high prices: "Bidenomics."

Instead, Harris carefully took credit for America's post-COVID economic recovery and lowering drug costs while acknowledging there's more work to do.

"I'm very proud of the work that we have done that has brought inflation down to less than 3%," Harris said.

"America recovered faster than any wealthy nation around the world, but ... prices, in particular for groceries, are still too high," she said. "The American people know it. I know it." ... Read more

Rachel Maddow: 'Don't sleep on what is happening in the states' | MSNBC | 08/27/24 | 8:59

'Russians do everything via Telegram.' Pavel Durov's arrest upends Kremlin military comms.
Politico | Veronika Melkozerova | 08/26/24

SpaceX's Falcon 9 grounded ahead of historic Polaris Dawn mission
Axios | Rebecca Falconer | 08/29/24

The Federal Aviation Administration temporarily grounded SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets on Wednesday after a booster failed to land upright and exploded following the successful launch of Starlink satellites.

Why it matters: The grounding pending the outcome of an investigation into Wednesday's incident comes as SpaceX prepares for its Polaris Dawn mission featuring four private astronauts who are set to attempt the first-ever space walk by private citizens.

"The incident involved the failure of the Falcon 9 booster rocket while landing on a droneship at sea. No public injuries or public property damage have been reported. The FAA is requiring an investigation." ... Read more

Did Trump Campaign Desecrate Arlington National Cemetery? | Thomm Hartmann| 08/28/24 | 3:59

The controversial California AI bill that has divided the tech world
Axios | Ina Fried, Ashley Gold | 08/28/24

A California effort to regulate AI has divided the tech world, with some trying to squelch what they see as overreach by a single state and others supporting the bill.

The big picture: The move comes as regulators in Europe have again taken the lead on legislation but Congress has yet to act, putting U.S. states in the driver's seat.

Catch up quick: California's SB 1047 would require AI developers to comply with certain rules before developing their models.

It passed the state Senate 32-1, with the Assembly facing an Aug. 31 deadline to approve the measure in time for it to head to Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Driving the news: Anthropic has offered cautious support for the bill, following certain changes, while OpenAI opposes it, saying it could "stifle innovation."

What they're saying: Elon Musk said Monday that California "should probably pass the SB 1047 AI safety bill," arguing that AI's risk to the public justifies regulation. "This is a tough call and will make some people upset," he said. ... Read more

Jack Smith's superseding indictment of Trump in the election subversion case
Politico | staff | 08/27/24

The new indictment removes some specific allegations against Trump but contains the same four criminal charges as the first.

A federal grand jury in Washington has reindicted Donald Trump on four felony charges related to his effort to subvert the 2020 presidential election. ... Read more

United States of America vs Donald J. Trump

The sense of global gloom is abating
Axios | Neil Irwin | 08/26/24

The world is no longer on fire. That's the central takeaway from the annual assemblage of the grandees of global economics in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that concluded Saturday.

The big picture: Global central bankers largely feel that a long period in which the world economy has been whipsawed has come to an end, and that the outlook is for a return to steady growth and low inflation.

It's not that the world's economic problems are defeated, of course, but the feeling of careening from one crisis to the next, which has hung over the symposium the last few years, is gone. ... Read more

Man charged in threats to kill election workers in Colorado and Arizona
Axios | Rebecca Falconer | 08/27/24

A Colorado man has been arrested in connection with multiple online threats against election officials and others in Colorado and Arizona, the Department of Justice announced Monday.

The big picture: Teak Brockbank, 45, was arrested Friday in his home city of Cortez and he's accused of making "detailed death threats against election officials, judges, and law enforcement officers," per a statement from Attorney General Merrick Garland, whose DOJ Election Threats Task Force is overseeing the case.

"I could pick up my rifle and I could go put a bullet in this Mans head and send him to explain himself to our Creator right now," Teakty4u wrote about a Colorado state judge, according to the complaint. ... Read more

Harris flip-flops on building the border wall
Axios | Alex Thompson,Hans Nichols |08/27/24

If she's elected president, Kamala Harris pledges to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on the wall along the southern border - a project she once opposed and called "un-American" during the Trump administration.

Why it matters: It's the latest example of Harris flip-flopping on her past liberal positions such as supporting Medicare for All and banning fracking - proposals that aides say she now is against. ... Read more

One million brain scans used to assess dementia risk
BBC | Laura Goodwin | 08/26/24

Scientists are hoping that access to more than 1.6 million brain scans collected from patients across Scotland could help predict a person's risk of dementia.

A team of 20 researchers from the universities of Edinburgh and Dundee have been given unprecedented permission to view a huge number of anonymous scans gathered from across the Scottish population over a decade.

It is the first time scientists in the UK have had access to such large volumes of valuable data.

They will use artificial intelligence (AI) to analyse the scans to see if there are patterns or signs of dementia.

Dementia is characterised by the build-up of different types of protein in the brain, which damages brain tissue and leads to cognitive decline.

Molecular and cellular changes to the brain usually begin many years before any symptoms occur. ... Read more

Massachusetts towns on alert over potentially deadly mosquito-borne virus
Axios | Rebecca Falconer | 08/26/24

Ten Massachusetts counties are at high or critical risk from the mosquito-borne virus eastern equine encephalitis, a rare but potentially deadly virus, state health officials warn.

The big picture: There are currently no vaccines or medicines available to treat EEE, also known as "Triple E," which about 30% of people die from, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"[M]any survivors have ongoing neurologic problems," per an online CDC post. ... ... ... Read more

Telegram CEO Pavel Durov reportedly arrested in France
magazine | Sam Sabin | 08/28/24

French authorities arrested Pavel Durov, the CEO of encrypted messaging app Telegram, on Saturday night, according to multiple news reports.

Why it matters: The arrest appears tied to Telegram's looser content moderation policies, and the company's reported unwillingness to cooperate with law enforcement.

The arrest has raised questions about what liability risks social media executives have over the content users share on their platforms.

State of play: Durov, who was born in Russia and has citizenship in France, was arrested at Le Bourget airport outside of Paris shortly after landing on a private jet Saturday evening, according to Reuters. ... Read more

Hospice: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver | John Oliver | 08/22/24 | 28:54

DNC vs. RNC: Two convention speeches, two different messages | MSNBC/Morning Joe | 08/23/24 | 8:55

1. DNC LIVE: Day 1 of Democratic National Convention in Chicago | AP | 08/19/24 | 6:14:10
2. Democratic National Convention (Day 2) | C-Span | 08/20/24 | 6:15:30
3. Democratic National Convention (Day 3) | C-Span | 08/21/24 | 6:20:05
4. Kamala Harris Accepts Presidential Nomination at Democratic National Convention (Day 4) | C-Span | 08/22/24 | 5:45:10

'An inflection point in history': Maddow on Kamala Harris' historic DNC speech | MSNBC/Rachel Maddow | 08/23/24 | 6:55

Donald Trump's shocking cruelty exposed by his own family | 60 Minutes Australia | 08/18/24 | 17:20

DNC Night 4: Kamala Harris Closes Out A Joyous, Highly-Rated DNC | Trump Is A Weak, Unserious Man | Stephen Colbert | 08/23/24 | 12:27

Oprah, Clinton and the coach: Takeaways from Walz Night at the DNC
Axios | Zachary Basu | 08/22/24

CHICAGO - On a star-studded night of speakers, it was a member of the audience who delivered the most unforgettable moment of the Democratic National Convention.

"That's my dad!" a crying Gus Walz, the 17-year-old son of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, shouted and pointed as his father accepted the party's vice presidential nomination.

Why it matters: On the biggest stage of Walz's political career, his family showed America why Vice President Kamala Harris chose him to be his running mate: his ability to mix compassion with no-frills authenticity.

"Hope, Gus and Gwen: You are my entire world, and I love you," Walz addressed his daughter, son and wife as he recounted the family's journey with fertility treatments.

"I'm letting you in on how we started a family because this is a big part about what this election is about: Freedom!" Walz declared to the crowd of dewy-eyed Democrats. ... Read more

Trump protected by bulletproof glass in 1st outdoor rally since shooting
Axios | Rebecca Falconer | 08/22/24

Former President Trump appeared behind bulletproof glass in North Carolina in his first outdoor rally since the assassination attempt on him in Butler, Pennsylvania, last month.

The big picture: It's been signature Trump to hold large outdoor rallies, but the U.S. Secret Service had expressed concern about the Republican presidential candidate holding big-crowd events and initially advised against it in some instances.

ABC News first reported last week that the USSS had recommended Trump be protected by bulletproof glass when he resumed holding outdoor rallies. ... Read more

Oath Keepers lawyer pleads guilty to obstructing Jan. 6 investigation
Politico | Kelley Cheney | 08/21/24

Kellye SoRelle admitted that she advised members of the extremist group to destroy evidence.

A lawyer who advised members of the far-right Oath Keepers to delete their text messages in the aftermath of their leaders' role in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol pleaded guilty Wednesday to obstructing federal investigators.

Kellye SoRelle, who had a romantic relationship with Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes, admitted that she advised others in the group to destroy evidence. She also pleaded guilty for being present on Capitol grounds during the riot, though she did not enter the building.

SoRelle’s plea ends a saga that has been pending for years, including several months while U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta determined whether she was competent to stand trial or enter a voluntary plea. He ultimately found that she knowingly admitted to her crimes. SoRelle will be sentenced in January and is likely facing several months to a year in prison. ... Read more

Why did this conservative US judge endorse Kamala Harris?
TheGuardian | Margaret Sullivan | 08/21/24

What matters to Michael Luttig is getting past January 2025 with democracy intact. We can argue later about how to govern

J Michael Luttig has never endorsed a Democrat before. That's no surprise since the well-respected legal scholar - a retired federal appeals court judge - leans well right of center.

Appointed by the first President Bush in 1991, Luttig is from the old school of the Republican party. He once worked in Ronald Reagan's White House and served as a law clerk to Antonin Scalia.

But now, whatever his policy views or personal politics, Luttig has set them aside. He will pull the lever in November for Kamala Harris. ... Read more

Earth currently experiencing a sixth mass extinction, according to scientists | 60 Minutes | 2023 | 13:16

Biden in late-night farewell: "I gave my best to you"
Axios | Erin Doherty | 08/19/24

A fiery President Biden delivered an impassioned defense of democracy at the DNC on Monday as he cast November's presidential election as an existential fight for the future of the country.

Why it matters: The 81-year-old president's speech ran past midnight Eastern time as the DNC was behind schedule. Biden passed the torch to Vice President Kamala Harris and said the fight against Trumpism is far from finished.

"With a grateful heart, I stand before you now on this August night to report that democracy has prevailed," Biden said.

"It's working. They believe it": Experts warn Trump preparing "next version of Stop the Steal"
Salon | Nicholas Lu | 08/19/24

Kamala Harris' emergence as the Democratic Party's standard-bearer has been met with barrage of claims by former President Donald Trump and his allies that the vice president seized the party nomination in an undemocratic coup and is preparing to rig the election against him. The accusations, barely mentioned at the Republican National Convention in July, are reaching an ever more fevered pitch as Harris pulls ahead of Trump in election polling, with the former president labeling any inconvenience or obstacle for him as an example of election interference.

"This was an overthrow of a president. This was an overthrow," Trump declared at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday, referring to President Joe Biden giving way to Harris on the ticket. "They deposed a president," he continued. "It was a coup of a president. This was a coup." ... Read more

"The Secret IRS Files. Inside the Tax Records of the .001%
propublica.org | Jesse Eisinger, Jeff Ernsthausen and Paul Kiel | 06/08/21

ProPublica has obtained a vast cache of IRS information showing how billionaires like Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and Warren Buffett pay little in income tax compared to their massive wealth - sometimes, even nothing. ... Read more

Hamas rejects new U.S. proposal for Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal
Axios | Barak Ravid | 08/19/24

Hamas on Sunday rejected an updated U.S. proposal for a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza, blaming Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for moving the goalposts and the U.S. for indulging him.

Why it matters: The White House had claimed significant progress had been made during talks in Doha over the last several days. The rejection of the new proposal, which was presented to the parties on Friday, makes President Biden's goal of getting a deal this week almost impossible.

A stalemate in the negotiations would also make an attack by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel much more likely.

Both Tehran and Hezbollah have vowed revenge for Israeli assassinations in Beirut and Tehran, but have held their fire so far. ... Read more

Jeff Zients says Biden will "finish the job" with five-month sprint
Axios | Mike Allen | 08/19/24

White House chief of staff Jeff Zients tells Axios that President Biden is determined to make his final five months in office - 154½ days! - as productive as any five months of his presidency.

Why it matters: "The president's belief is that every single day matters," Zients told Axios in an interview ahead of Biden's valedictory address to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago tonight.

"We're going to finish the job as strong as we started it and continue to make history together." ... Read more

House GOP investigators accuse Biden of 'impeachable conduct' in long-awaited report
Politico | Jordain Carney | 08/19/24

House Republican investigators accused President Joe Biden of engaging in "impeachable conduct" as part of a long-awaited report. It's unlikely to change a reality the party has faced for months: They don't have the votes to impeach him.

The 291-page report released Monday by the Oversight, Judiciary and Ways and Means committees comes roughly eight months after Republicans formalized their impeachment inquiry against the president. Their sweeping investigations, largely focused on the business deals of Biden's family members, have gone on even longer, informally starting around the time they first took the House majority in January 2023. ... Read more

Biden's goal: Gaza deal by the end of next week
Axios | Barak Ravid | 08/17/24

President Biden is aiming to get a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal by the end of next week while also trying to deter Iran and Hezbollah from conducting an attack on Israel that could undermine this effort, U.S. officials say.

Why it matters: Biden and his aides say they feel they are closer than ever to getting a deal that could lead to the release of hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza, including American citizens, and end 10 months of war that has killed more than 1,600 Israelis and 40,000 Palestinians.

"I'm optimistic. It's far from over. Just a couple more issues. I think we've got a shot," Biden told reporters on Friday. ... ... ... Read more

Iran is now the biggest foreign threat to the 2024 elections
Axios | Sam Sabin | 08/16/24

Iran, not Russia, is proving to be the biggest nation-state threat to the U.S. presidential election in November.

Why it matters: Russia and Iran have grown more brazen and hungrier in their attacks on the U.S. elections, officials say, and the final stretch of the presidential election could see even more chaos.

Driving the news: Google researchers released a report Wednesday confirming that Iran-backed hackers targeted both the Trump and Biden campaigns in a phishing attack.

The FBI is actively investigating the Trump campaign's claims that Iran hacked its systems and is leaking stolen materials to U.S. news outlets. ... Read more

Trump already laying groundwork for election chaos: Charlie Sykes | MSNBC Joe | 08/12/24 | 9:17

Trump goes big on tax cut promises in Harris prebuttal
Axios | Justin Green | 08/15/24

Former President Trump is offering massive tax cuts if he's elected, courting voters with big giveaways without discussing how they'll pay for it.

With his offerings spelled out on the backdrop of his rally in Asheville, N.C., Trump listed promises for voters who think the economy isn't working.

Left unsaid in Trump's promises: How to pay for them, and how to protect Social Security while cutting taxes. ... Read more

Project 2025 Leaks Reveal Trump Connection, While He Continues to Play Dumb | The Daily Show | 08/15/24 | 9:37

Twitter Glitches Out for Elon’s Interview and So Does Trump | The Daily Show | 08/15/24 | 7:02

End of the Road: How Money Became Worthless | Best Documentary | 07/29/23 | 55:36

U.S. approves $20 billion in weapons sales to Israel
Axios | Barak Ravid | 08/13/24

The Biden administration on Tuesday approved more than $20 billion major arms sales to Israel, including new F-15 fighter jets and tens of thousands of tank and mortar shells.

The most significant deal is the sale of 50 F-15IA fighter jets and the upgrade of 25 F-15I fighter jets that are already in service in the Israeli Air Force. The deal is worth $18.8 billion.

The Biden administration also approved the sale of 50,000 120mm mortar shells and 32,000 120mm tank shells.

Another deal involves the sale of 30 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles for fighter jets.

The last deal that was approved is for the sale of military tactical vehicles. ... Read more

Trump's alternative reality campaigne
Axios | Dave Lawler | 08/14/24

In former President Trump's version of reality, Vice President Kamala Harris' crowds are AI-generated, he's leading in nearly all the "real" polls, and President Biden might reclaim his spot on the ticket at any moment.

Why it matters: None of those things are true. And Trump's advisers and allies worry he's spending so much time in alternative reality that it's undermining his real-world campaign.

Driving the news: Trump falsely claimed Sunday that photos showing Harris meeting a huge crowd of supporters at her rally in a Detroit airplane hangar last week were doctored.

"There was nobody at the plane, and she 'A.I.'d' it, and showed a massive 'crowd' of so-called followers, BUT THEY DIDN'T EXIST!" Trump declared. ... Read more

Donald Trump is in full meltdown mode. Could he destroy his own campaign?
TheGuardian | Arwa Mahdawi | 08/13/24

Kamala Harris as his opponent, Trump clearly doesn't know what to do. His campaign now seems to consist of nothing but racism, the revival of old grudges, conspiracy theories and insults.

This strategy isn't exactly working out for him. A New York Times/Siena College poll published on Saturday found Harris four points ahead in the crucial battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. This is a big deal: when Biden was the nominee, Trump was either always slightly ahead in those states or the two men were neck and neck. It’s not just the polls that have shifted, media coverage has, too. A month ago, every headline seemed to be questioning Biden's mental competence; now, headlines are focused on Trump's unhinged rambling. ... Read more

July temperatures point to record hottest year
Axios | Andrew Freedman | 08/12/24

Additional global temperature data is in, and it shows July was ever so slightly warmer than the previous record, which occurred last year.

Why it matters: Month-to-month climate fluctuations face more scrutiny this year following 2023's record warmth that researchers still have not fully explained.

The expectation of many climate scientists is that the unsettlingly rapid warming last year would soon return to the pace of the past decade.

The new July report comes from NASA, and it differs slightly in its ranking from European data released last week.

That calculation showed a second-warmest July and an end to the year-plus streak of record warmest months. But NASA's brings the heat record streak to 14 consecutive months.

The lack of significant cooling in NASA's records compared to July 2023 is noteworthy but not a warning that we're still heating up at last year's rate. ... Read more

Inside Project 2025's Secret Training Videos
ProPublica | by Andy Kroll | 08/10/24

"Eradicate climate change references"; only talk to conservative media; don't leave a paper trail for watchdogs to discover. In a series of never-before-published videos, Project 2025 details how a second Trump administration would operate.

Project 2025, the controversial playbook and policy agenda for a right-wing presidential administration, has lost its director and faced scathing criticism from both Democratic groups and former President Donald Trump. But Project 2025's plan to train an army of political appointees who could battle against the so-called deep state government bureaucracy on behalf of a future Trump administration remains on track.

One centerpiece of that program is dozens of never-before-published videos created for Project 2025's Presidential Administration Academy. The vast majority of these videos - 23 in all, totaling more than 14 hours of content - were provided to ProPublica and Documented by a person who had access to them. ... Read more

DNC launches first Harris-Walz ad blitz
Axios | Erin Doherty | 08/12/24

The Democratic National Committee on Monday is launching its first ad blitz since Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Tim Walz (Minn.) officially became the party's presidential and VP nominees.

Why it matters: One of those ads is a billboard on the Las Vegas Strip in Nevada, a splashy reminder that Democrats are making a play for the state that Republicans thought they had in the bag.

The DNC says it is launching more than 80 billboards, which will run in English and Spanish, in and around the major metropolitan areas in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Cities on the list include Pittsburgh, Phoenix, Milwaukee, Asheville and Grand Rapids. ... Read more

Demoralized Americans give democracy low odds of surviving election in poll
Axios | April Rubin | 08/09/24

Only one in five U.S. adults believe democracy will withstand the 2024 presidential election, according to AP-NORC poll data on Thursday.

Why it matters: Prospective voters are demoralized by the outcome regardless of whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Trump wins the historic matchup.

Another one out of five believe "democracy is already so seriously broken that it doesn't matter who wins."

The big picture: President Biden said he's "not confident at all" that a peaceful transfer of power will take place in November if Trump loses the election.

By the numbers: 59% of U.S. adults overall said the outcome of the election could put democracy at risk. 58% of Republicans and 67% of Democrats said the same. ... Read more

markets are like dealing with a toddler tantrum
Axios | Neil Irwin | 08/08/24

The Bank's hawkish tone last week, paired with a worsening U.S. outlook, drove a collapse in Japanese stocks on Monday as traders unwound yen-based trades.

But, it appears, asymmetrical risk (see full article) is what investors have come to believe in

"They have become far too sensitive of market movements on the downside," Ruchir Sharma, author of a provocative new book called "What Went Wrong with Capitalism," tells Axios. "They are happy to let markets rip on the upside but at the slightest sign of any trouble on the downside want to react to it."

"Central banks justify such a reaction function by saying that markets going down can have a negative impact on the economy, but they are only strengthening the feedback loop between the markets and the economy by being so sensitive to market movements," he said.

"This asymmetrical risk is what investors have come to believe in, letting markets get larger and larger as a share of the economy over time," added Sharma, the chairman of Rockefeller International. ... Read more

What Went Wrong with Capitalism by Ruchir Sharma

Capitalism didn't fail, it was ruined...

What went wrong with capitalism? Ruchir Sharma’s account is not like any you will have heard before. He says progressives are right, in part, when they mock modern capitalism as "socialism for the rich." For a century, governments have expanded in just about every measurable dimension, from spending to regulation and the scale of financial rescues when the economy wobbles. The result is expensive state guarantees for everyone-bailouts for the rich, entitlements for the middle class, welfare for the poor.

Taking you back to the 19th century, Sharma shows how completely the reflexes of government have changed: from hands-off to hands-on, from doing too little to help anyone in hard times to today trying to prevent anyone suffering any economic pain, ever. Trading sins of omission and indifference for excesses of spending and meddling, governments from the United States to Europe and Japan have pumped so much money into their economies that financial markets can no longer invest all that capital efficiently.

Inadvertently, they have fueled the rise of monopolies, "zombie" firms, and billionaires. They have made capitalism less fair and less efficient, which is slowing economic growth and fueling popular anger. The first step to a cure is a correct diagnose of the problem. Capitalism has been badly distorted by constant government intervention and the relentless spread of a bailout culture. Building an even bigger state will only double down on what ruined capitalism in the first place.

Tim Walz's "big dad energy" wins hearts across the internet
Axios | Ivana Saric | 08/08/24

Even before Vice President Kamala Harris officially picked Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, social media was replete with memes hailing him as "everyone's Midwestern dad."

Why it matters: The internet's embrace of Walz's affable nature and everyman appeal further highlights the contrast between the Republican and Democratic tickets in the 2024 race when it comes to appealing to young voters.

The big picture: In the weeks since Walz's stock began rising in the veepstakes, wholesome photos of him dancing, holding a sleeping piglet, and happily being hugged by a group of children have circulated on social media. ... Read more

Abortions exceed pre-Roe numbers as telehealth access grows
Axios | Sareen Habeshian | 08/08/24

The number of women getting abortions in the U.S. continued to climb in early 2024, surpassing the number of abortions performed before Roe v. Wade was overturned, according to a national report released Wednesday.

The big picture: The increase is partly driven by access to abortions via telehealth, which allows patients to circumvent state laws banning the procedure, according to a quarterly #WeCount report from the Society of Family Planning nonprofit.

After the Supreme Court overturned Roe, providers started offering medication abortion via telehealth under shield law protections.

Abortions provided via telehealth rose to 20% of all abortions in the first quarter of 2024, per the report. That's about 19,700 telehealth abortions per month. ... Read more

RFK Jr.: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver | 07/08/24 | 31:31

QAnon Conspiracies Are Tearing Through Evangelical America | VICE News | 2022 | 14:14

Klepper Asks MAGA About the Shooting, Harris, and Both Parties' VP Noms | The Daily Show | 08/07/24 | 6:16

Trump says he's "thrilled" with Tim Walz as Harris VP pick
Axios | Ivana Saric | 08/07/24

Former President Trump told "Fox & Friends" Wednesday that he "could not be more thrilled" that Vice President Kamala Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to be her running mate.

1. "This is a ticket that would want this country to go communist immediately, if not sooner," Trump said.
2. Alluding to the fact that Walz was reportedly chosen over runner-up Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro - who is Jewish - Trump said Walz placement on the ticket was "very insulting to Jewish people."
3. Trump has repeatedly assailed Jewish people who vote for Democrats.
4. He made similar remarks Wednesday, telling the program that "I think that any Jewish person who votes for a Democrat, or in this case these people, but who votes for a Democrat, should have their head examined."
... Read more
The wealthiest 1% of the worlds population generate the same amount of carbon emissions as the poorest 2/3 of humanity!

Unions cheer Walz pick as Harris VP
Axios | Emily Peck | 08/07/24

Just last year, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz signed a package of legislation considered one of the most sweeping pro-worker laws seen in the U.S. in decades.

The big picture: The battle over the labor vote is key to capturing the White House in November and Walz's selection as Kamala Harris' vice president seems aimed right at that constituency.

Union leaders and advocates for pro-worker and family policies like paid parental leave and childcare cheered Walz's selection on Tuesday.

State of play: Though the United Auto Workers took some time before endorsing Harris, they wasted none in boosting Walz. ... Read more

Harris picks Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as VP in 2024 election
Axios | Erin Doherty,Andrew Solender | 08/06/24

Walz, a military veteran and former public school teacher, served in the House for 12 years, representing a rural district in southern Minnesota. He was elected governor in 2018 and won re-election in 2022.

Walz ascended to the top of Harris' list of VP contenders in recent days, becoming an outspoken surrogate for the campaign.

Dozens of members of Congress advocated publicly and privately for their former House colleague to be picked.

He went viral for his use of the word "weird" to describe former President Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance. ... Read more

'Where did the cash go?': Maddow looks for clues in new report about Trump, Egypt and $10 million | MSNBC | 08/06/24 | 11:01

ECONOMIC BLOODBATH: $1.4 TRILLION LOST in a Day as Global Markets Panic & Major Indices Collapse | Lena Petrova | 08/05/24 | 10:37

Why Japan's currency is triggering a global market selloff
Axios | Hope King | 08/06/24

Japanese stocks saw their worst day today since 1987 as Japan's currency soared to a seven-month high against the U.S. dollar - triggering a selloff in global stocks.

Why it matters: There's an unwinding of the popular "yen carry trade" happening "at lightning speed" that will continue to cause volatility until it's over, Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, tells Axios.

Catch up fast: The premise of the trade is simple: Investors borrow cheap yen in Japan, where interest rates have been stuck at zero, and buy higher yielding assets in other countries with predictable returns, such as U.S. stocks (primarily Big Tech names) and bonds.

Profit taking, concerns about the direction of the U.S. economy given Friday's U.S. jobs report and a traditional calendar cycle of selling in August and September also factored into the equation, he added. ... Read more

Jared Bernstein is an American government official who is the chair of the United States Council of Economic Advisers. | 08/05/24 | 2:00

Global markets plunge over recession fears
Axios | Business | 08/05/24

Fears of a U.S. recession tanked global markets Monday, with Japanese stocks suffering their biggest single-day rout since 1987's Black Monday.

Why it matters: Friday's dismal U.S. jobs report capped a series of worrying economic signs over the past few weeks, with clear cracks in what had been a robust post-pandemic expansion.

Zoom in: Wall Street's fear gauge, the VIX, is trading at levels not seen since June 2020.

U.S. stock futures tumbled Monday, with NASDAQ's futures falling as much as 4% pre-open.

Zoom out: In Japan, the Nikkei average shed a staggering 12.4% - the index's worst showing in percentage terms since the October 1987 crash, Reuters reports.

The Nikkei's 4,451-point loss was the biggest ever - eclipsing the 3,836 points it lost on Oct. 20, 1987, when the Black Monday crash hit Japan. ... Read more

Trump supporters

Stock slump worsens as recession worries grow
Axios | Matt Phillips | 08/05/24

What's going on: It's energy costs. The global surge in prices of crude oil, gasoline and natural gas is deeply unsettling to the world economy - and Russia just complicated matters further by cutting natural gas flows to Europe.

1. But it's also what rising energy costs will do to inflation. (Push it up.)
2. It's how central banks like the Federal Reserve will react to energy-driven inflation. (Push rates up)
3. And most recently, it's what the Fed's reaction to energy-driven inflation will do to economic growth. (Push it down ... potentially way down.)

The West Bank: Last Week Tonight | John Oliver | 08/01/24 | 30:37

Maddow Reveals The HIDDEN TRUTH Behind Trump's NEW Scandal

At Rolling Stone today they profile 70 different election officials who have been put into position in the swing states of Arizona Georgia Michigan Nevada North Carolina and Pennsylvania, who are election denialists committed election denialists officials that have been put in place in all of the swing states to make sure that election results no matter what they are do not get certified in those States.

This year "at least 22 of these election officials have already refused or delayed certification processes in recent elections" according to democratic election lawyer Mark Elias "I think we are going to see Mass refusals to certify the election in November. Republicans are counting on not just that they can disrupt the election in big counties, they're counting on the fact that if they don't don't certify in several small counties you can't certify Statewide results".

... Read more

Israel's new powder keg
Axios | Barak Ravid,Zachary Basu | 08/02/24

Israel's assassination spree in Iran and Lebanon has brought the Middle East closer to a devastating regional war than at any point since Hamas' Oct. 7 terrorist attack.

Why it matters: The dangerous spiral of escalation could drag the U.S. deeper into the regional crisis and lead to mass suffering well beyond Gaza, where hopes for a ceasefire and hostage deal are slipping away after months of careful negotiations.

For President Biden, who has vowed to use his remaining months in office to end the Israel-Hamas war and bring home the hostages, the stakes are legacy-defining.

Biden reaffirmed his commitment to Israel's security in a call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday, where the two leaders discussed "new military deployments" to protect Israel from Iran. ... Read more

Heat wave builds from coast to coast, worsening wildfires
Axios | Andrew Freedman | 08/01/24/span>

As a strong area of high pressure aloft, or heat dome, intensifies and stretches its influence across the Lower 48 states, cities from Washington to Sacramento could near or surpass 100°F as early as Thursday.

The heat is forecast to persist the longest in the West, where the National Weather Service shows at least some risk of extreme heat through Aug. 10.

The heat index is likely to max out in the humid Mississippi River Valley during this event at around 115°F, according to the NWS.

"The combination of hot temperatures/high heat indices, as well as very warm morning lows only dropping into the mid- to upper 70s, will be dangerous to anyone without access to adequate air conditioning," ... Read more

How Sanctions Work: Iran and the Impact of Economic Warfare by Narges Bajoghli

Sanctions have enormous consequences. Especially when imposed by a country with the economic influence of the United States, sanctions induce clear shockwaves in both the economy and political culture of the targeted state, and in the everyday lives of citizens. But do economic sanctions induce the behavioral changes intended? Do sanctions work in the way they should? To answer these questions, the authors of How Sanctions Work highlight Iran, the most sanctioned country in the world. Comprehensive sanctions are meant to induce uprisings or pressures to change the behavior of the ruling establishment, or to weaken its hold on power. But, after four decades, the case of Iran shows the opposite to be true: sanctions strengthened the Iranian state, impoverished its population, increased state repression, and escalated Iran's military posture toward the U.S. and its allies in the region. Instead of offering an 'alternative to war,' sanctions have become a cause of war. Consequently, How Sanctions Work reveals how necessary it is to understand how sanctions really work.

Dozens of wildfires scorch U.S. West as another heat wave looms
Axios | Andrew Freedman,Rebecca Falconer | 07/31/24

Dozens of massive wildfires burning across the western U.S. have forced thousands to evacuate, and forecasters warn another potentially record-breaking heat wave will soon trigger further fire risks.

The big picture: Some 89 large fires burning across the West are impacting air quality. Among them is California's fifth-biggest blaze on record, the Park Fire, which spread tens of thousands of acres per day in under a week.

Stunning stat: The Park Fire is part of a trend toward more large fires in California, which is a result of a combination of climate change and land management practices that suppressed fires for decades. ... Read more

COVID summer continues to heat up
magazine | author | date

The summer's COVID-19 wave is continuing, with the latest wastewater surveillance data detecting "high" virus activity levels across the majority of the U.S. and "very high" levels in 19 states, per Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.

Why it matters: The virus is especially prevalent across the western U.S. and the South, in particular a region that includes New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana, where test positivity topped 23%, per agency data.

Test positivity is also elevated - to nearly 18% - in the region composed of California, Nevada and Arizona. ... Read more